Nevada Wolfpack vs Utah State Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/22/25

A Mountain West showdown will take place in Logan, Utah, where the Nevada Wolfpack will visit the Utah State Aggies. These teams have experienced different starts to conference play, as the Aggies are in serious contention for the Mountain West crown with a 6-1 league record, while Nevada is playing catch-up with their 3-4 league mark. We are beginning to see conference rematches across college basketball, and this game will be a rematch from their New Year’s Eve matchup, where the Aggies were able to pull off the 69-64 victory on the road in Reno. Despite this, the underdog Nevada Wolfpack are the side I will be playing on Wednesday.

While you can say Nevada has played well below their preseason expectations this season, the Wolfpack can also be considered unlucky during conference play. Nevada started 0-4 in league play, but none of those losses came by more than 5 points. They have since righted the ship and won their last 3 games, albeit against the bottom of the league. As for Utah State, they have been on the opposite end of late game fortune. Despite the Aggies being tied atop the Mountain West, all 7 of their games have come down to the wire with their largest margin of victory being by 7 against San Jose State. There seems to have been some late game “magic” on the Aggies side, but we may have seen this team begin to regress in their last game at UNLV, where they lost 65-62. Utah State has played with fire all season long, so laying 6 points is a steep price that I am not willing to pay.

The actual matchup seems to favor the Wolfpack as well. On the offensive side, Nevada’s shooting ability can break down the matchup zone that Aggie’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun has run all season long. Wing pieces in Xavier DuSell, Tre Coleman, Kobe Sanders, and Nick Davidson all possess the perimeter firepower to exploit an Aggie’s defense that gives up plenty of open looks from beyond the arc (69th percentile in unguarded catch and shoot frequency allowed). The fact that Nevada has already seen the Utah State zone is an important factor as well, as this type of zone defense is meant to confuse offenses and take them out of their rhythm. Now that Nevada has a full game of film to study, they should be much better suited to attack this Aggie’s defense.

On the defensive side, Nevada looks to prevent their opponent’s transition opportunities (3rd percentile in transition frequency allowed). The Wolfpack also try to pack the paint to deny their opponent’s chances at the rim, and these are 2 areas that Utah State looks to create their value. Nevada should be well suited to contain the Aggie’s offensive attack. Nevada desperately needs a marquee victory to at least give them a chance at an at-large bid come March. Even if they can’t, Nevada profiles as a team that can keep games close, so we will be taking the Wolfpack +6 on Wednesday night.

Nevada vs Utah State prediction: Nevada +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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