Nevada Wolfpack vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 03/08/25

The Nevada Wolf Pack and the San Diego State Aztecs will face off on Saturday night for a Mountain West battle. It will be the last day of the regular season for the Mountain West Conference before heading to Las Vegas on Wednesday for the conference tournament. Nevada is locked in at the seven seed for the league tournament next weekend while San Diego State is still fighting for a higher seed if they can win. It should be a good matchup, but our best bet of the game is the under. We like the under because both teams play at a slow pace and San Diego State has an elite defense.

The total is set for 132.5 and the under is our play. These two teams played back in January, and they combined for 119 points. The Wolf Pack shot just 29.4 percent from the field and 19.2 percent from three in that matchup in that one. We expect a similar result as game one when they scored just 50 points due to the Aztecs great defense. According to KenPom, San Diego State’s defense is ranked #13 in adjusted efficiency, #9 in effective field goal percentage, and #7 in two-point percentage. Their elite defense combined with the slow pace both teams play at should keep the total under. Nevada is ranked #345 in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is ranked #249, so we do not see the total going over.

*Under 132.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at 131*