Montana Grizzlies vs Northern Colorado Bears Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/12/25

The stage is set for the Big Sky Championship on Wednesday night. This conference tournament ran true to form, as the top 2 seeds will go head-to-head with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. This will be the 3rd time Montana and Northern Colorado meet, with each team winning on the road during the regular season. Montana was unable to score in the first meeting in a 81-57 loss, putting up just 0.81 points per possession while shooting 43% from 2-point range and 19% from beyond the arc. That changed when the Grizzlies visited Greeley, where they scored 1.26 points per possession and shot better than 60% from inside and beyond the arc in a 86-78 win. 

Both of the regular season meetings between Montana and Northern Colorado were around 69 possessions, so I expect this game to be around that many possessions as well. Northern Colorado loves to play with pace relative to the rest of the conference, as the Bears lead the Big Sky in adjusted tempo and average possession length. They have scored nearly 1.2 points per possession over their last 5 games and are in the 100th percentile in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage over that span. In other words, they are scoring at an elite rate in recent weeks, and Montana is not far behind. The Grizzlies have scored around 1.1 points per possession over the last few weeks and have been shooting the ball very well themselves. For reference, they are in the 89th percentile in effective field goal percentage and 97th percentile in true shooting percentage over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics).

On the other end, both teams have very strong defensive numbers of late. However, I think those numbers are a bit skewed because neither team has played against what I would consider a good offense in weeks. Northern Colorado has repeatedly allowed capable offenses to score, giving up an average of around 80 points per game to teams that are in the top 150 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency like Montana – whose results against good offenses have been similar. The Grizzlies yield an average of about 83 points per game against top 150 offenses like Northern Colorado. Neither defense offers much rim protection, and both offenses are littered with multiple shooters that can knock down perimeter shots at around a 40% clip – so the scoring should come from everywhere and anywhere on the floor in this one. Unders are typically the more profitable bet on conference championship totals in college basketball, but with the expected pace of play and current form these teams are in offensively, I find myself gravitating toward the Over in this Big Sky matchup. 

Montana vs Northern Colorado prediction: Over 148 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.

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