Missouri Tigers vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/14/25

The SEC Tournament has reached the quarterfinal stage, and one of the more intriguing games on Friday’s slate features a battle between the Missouri Tigers and Florida Gators in Nashville. It would be fair to wonder just how much the Gators truly care about winning this conference tournament given that they have the inside track to a #1 seed and are clearly one of the most complete teams in the nation. With that said, it’s worth pointing out that Florida has a pretty significant revenge spot on its hands against a Missouri team that went into Gainesville and emerged with a victory back on January 14. As for Missouri, the Tigers put forth a solid effort in their win over Mississippi State on Thursday, but there are plenty of ways this defense can be exploited, particularly in transition and on the glass. With that in mind, even though I do lean toward Florida covering the spread in this matchup, I’m more inclined to back the over in this contest.

There should be a ton of possessions in this game, which is always a key factor when backing a total that is pushing 160 points. Both teams are top 10 offenses and have no problem generating great looks for their shooters in a halfcourt setting, and I’d expect that to continue on Friday. It’s also worth mentioning that the first meeting generated a total of 165 points, and that was with Florida missing a whopping 10 free throws and shooting below its season average from beyond the 3-point arc. The Gators offense is an elite unit thanks to its outstanding guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, which creates plenty of headaches for a Missouri defense that is outside the top 150 in 2-point and 3-point percentage, and the numbers look even worse away from home. What makes Florida truly special is its elite frontcourt, featuring a trio of 7-footers that all hold their own on the glass, in addition to creating mismatches with their passing and cutting ability on the offensive end. Given that Missouri struggles mightily on the glass (295th in defensive rebounding rate), Florida should get plenty of second chance points off missed shots in this one. Missouri’s offense more than held its own against the Gators defense in the first meeting, and I’d expect at least 75 points from Caleb Grill, Mark Mitchell and company in a matchup they’re familiar with. Ultimately, this game should feature plenty of points, so let’s back the over in Nashville.

Missouri vs Florida prediction: Over 160.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 161.5

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