Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 12/23/24

As we head toward Christmas, the college basketball slate is thin, but we do get an in-state matchup between Middle Tennessee State and Tennessee. Despite being a huge favorite, my MTSU Blue Raiders vs Tennessee Volunteers prediction is the Vols to cover -26.5. MTSU and UT have not played in over a decade, despite the close proximity of the schools, and when the Blue Raiders make the couple hours’ drive across the plateau from the Boro to Knoxville, they will walk into a rowdy arena that is stinging from a football loss and ready to take it out on any opponent their #1-ranked basketball team faces. While I think MTSU has a pretty good squad this year, they are walking into a bad spot against a white hot team, and Tennessee has covered gigantic spreads several times this season already.

The undefeated Vols have won 6 of their 11 games by 25 points or more, and even more impressively, only Illinois has stayed within single digits of the Vols. While I don’t think this Volunteer team is quite that good, there is no question that they are playing at their peak right now, and until something changes, I will keep backing them. They have a talented and experienced point guard, another lethal shooter who transferred in via the portal, and a balanced roster all the way around. KenPom sees them as the #2 defense (behind Duke), which is to be expected, but also has them as the #15 offense, which is a surprise. This is no knock on MTSU—at 9-3, the Blue Raiders have been good so far this year, and they have a lot of talent too. They can make a run at the Conference USA crown, in fact. But coming to Knoxville to face the #1 team in the country who is hitting on all cylinders? No thanks. Give me the Vols at -26.5.

Middle Tennessee State vs Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee -26.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.