Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Terrapins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/26/25

The biggest game on the college basketball Wednesday night card takes place in College Park, Maryland where the Michigan State Spartans will take on the Maryland Terrapins in a heated Big Ten matchup. This game has significant implications at the top of the conference standings, with the Spartans currently holding a tiebreaker edge over in-state rival Michigan for first place in the Big Ten regular-season chase. From a situational perspective, I definitely side with Maryland at home in this game, especially considering what the Spartans have dealt with over the past few weeks. Over the last 6 games, Michigan State has played close contests against UCLA, Oregon, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan, and the Spartans still have Wisconsin on deck this weekend. This will be the 4th game in an 11-day span for Michigan State as well, so fatigue could come into play once we hit the 2nd half.

As for the hosts, Maryland has had 6 days off following an easy win over USC at home, so the Terps will have had plenty of time to prepare for Michigan State. The Spartans were pretty fortunate to get poor three-point shooting performances from the likes of Illinois, Purdue and Michigan in its recent victories over those squads. Considering that Maryland is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, I wouldn’t expect the Spartans to get this fortunate once again on Wednesday. In fact, while Michigan State’s defense is solid, the Spartans don’t do a good enough job of forcing turnovers (222nd in turnover percentage) and they allow a ton of open looks from beyond the arc (333rd in three-point rate allowed). It’s important to note that teams are likely due for some positive regression in the three-point shooting department against Tom Izzo’s team, with the Spartans sitting at 5th in tjree-point percentage allowed, despite allowing plenty of open looks each game. With that in mind, the Terrapins should be able to cash in on some of those wide-open looks, while also attacking the passing lanes and exploiting some of the flaws in this Michigan State defense. All things considered, I’ll lay the short number with the home team in this Big Ten game.

Michigan State vs Maryland prediction: Maryland -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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