Maryland Terrapins vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 01/23/25

The Illinois Fighting Illini (13-5) return to Champaign to host the Maryland Terrapins (14-5) on Thursday night after the Illini let their game at Michigan State slip away in the 2nd half. Illinois struggled from the perimeter (5/24) and the free throw line (17/27), leading to a close 2-point loss at the Breslin Center. Meanwhile, Maryland comes into this contest having been in a couple consecutive close games. The Terrapins haven’t been good in true road games this season, dropping all 4 games (and covering just 1) – including a 2-point overtime loss at Northwestern last week. The Terps were in each of those games until late in the 2nd half but were unable to close in any of them. 

While the Terps have surpassed expectations and have not lost by more than 6 points at any point yet this season, I’m not a complete believer in their resume – especially in conference play. Maryland has avoided all but 1 of the top 5 offenses and defenses in the Big Ten per in-conference metrics from KenPom thus far, and has benefitted from playing 4 of the bottom 7 defenses in the 18-team league. Illinois boasts the 2nd-best defense in the league per adjusted efficiency metrics, and has been relatively stout on its home floor outside of the loss to a surging Eric Musselman USC team in its last home game – a game in which the Illini were without arguably their best perimeter defender in Kasparas Jakucionis. 

As Maryland gets deeper into league play, it continues to lose its early season momentum, under-performing offensive and defensive expectations in 6 of its last 8 games – good for a 361st ranking in Haslametrics’ momentum statistic. The Terps are also 357th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, so the current number in the market makes sense despite Maryland keeping all of their games within 2 possessions thus far. For what it’s worth, Maryland’s defensive numbers drop off a cliff when they play the top teams in the sport. Against top 50 opponents, the Terps are 2-4 SU and rank 113th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. Against top 25 opponents, they drop to 135th. Lay it with the Illini at home.

Maryland vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -8.5 (-102) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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