Kentucky Wildcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/22/25

In one of the marquee matchups of the day, the Kentucky Wildcats (18-8) will head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (21-5). These teams met once already this season, and it was highly entertaining. The Tide went into Rupp Arena and scored 102 points in a 5-point victory, connecting on 13 of their 34 perimeter attempts. Kentucky lit it up too, as the Wildcats made 11 of their 27 3-point shots. This time around, Alabama enters this matchup on a 2-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been battling injuries to a majority of its back court. However, the ‘Cats managed to bounce back from a loss at Texas last week with a convincing home win against Vanderbilt despite not having Lamont Butler or Jaxson Robinson.

At the time of writing, Butler and Robinson are not expected to be back for this game. Butler went through some modified live sessions in practice on Friday per head coach Mark Pope, while Robinson worked on light skills drills on the side. That doesn’t sound like their return is imminent on Saturday. Butler and Robinson were huge assets for Kentucky in the first meeting against the Tide. Butler put up 17 points with 8 assists, 2 steals and 1 block, while Robinson stretched the floor with a trio of 3s on 7 attempts. Without their combined scoring and Butler’s perimeter defense this time around, I have a hard time seeing the ‘Cats hanging around for a full 40 minutes – especially against an Alabama team that is likely seething to snap its 2-game losing streak. 

Bolstered by 50 combined points per game from Mark Sears, Labaron Philon, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway, Alabama’s back court is simply too loaded for some fully healthy teams to hold down, let alone a team hampered with injuries to its back court like Kentucky. The Tide should be able to take full advantage of a Kentucky defense that is 318th in 3-point rate allowed while yielding more than 81 points per game on the road. In fact, Kentucky is probably due for a bit of 3-point regression defensively, and the same can be said for Alabama offensively. The Wildcats allow an average of 28.5 perimeter attempts per game on the road, which is 12th-most nationally. Fortunately for them, opponents have made only 28.8% of those attempts, which is 13th-lowest. Similarly, the Tide take 29 3-pointers per home game, which is top 15 nationally, yet they have made less than 30% of them to this point. Something has to give, and with the absences of Butler and Robinson combined with a potential motivational advantage for Alabama, I think it will be Kentucky’s back court that proves to be the weak link in this matchup. For what it’s worth, Kentucky is 349th nationally in Haslametric’s Away From Home, which makes sense given the 10% dip in the Wildcats’ effective field-goal percentage when not playing at Rupp. Expect a fully focused effort from the Tide in this one, as they could fall out of position for a double-bye in the SEC Tournament with a loss on Saturday.

Kentucky vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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