Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/08/25

We have a fascinating installment of the Sunflower Showdown on our hands on Saturday when the Kansas Jayhawks travel to the “little apple” to take on Kansas State in this Big 12 clash. Since suffering a catastrophic loss at home to Houston on January 25 — a game in which Kansas led by 6 and was at the free throw line with fewer than 20 seconds remaining — the Jayhawks appeared to be broken. After all, Bill Self’s squad hardly ever loses multiple games at Allen Fieldhouse in the same season, to say nothing of how they lost to the Cougars on that day. Things got worse last weekend, as the Jayhawks blew a 21-point halftime lead and ended up losing by double digits to Baylor, which was the biggest blown lead in a loss in the Self era to this point. However, the underlying metrics would tell you that Kansas is still a top 10 team and the Jayhawks certainly looked like it on Monday in a dominant victory over Iowa State. Self has been tinkering with the rotation, and he seemed to have found a group of guys that he trusts in that Iowa State game. Saturday’s game is where the Jayhawks will really be put to the test against a Kansas State side that is playing like a top-25 team in recent weeks. With that in mind, instead of targeting the side in this game I’m going with the over in this rivalry matchup. 

Despite the fact that Kansas has an excellent defense — one of the best units in the nation — the Jayhawks have been pretty fortunate with the 3-point shooting of their opponents to this point. Outside of the game against Iowa State in Ames, teams have not shot it well from deep against a Kansas team that is 163rd in 3-point rate allowed. There is certainly some regression coming in that regard, and it helps that Kansas State’s offense has been a top 20 unit over the last month (Barttorvik). On the other side of the ball, the Kansas offense has also been excellent over its last 7 games (top 15 in adjusted efficiency per Barttorvik), and much of that likely has to do with some of the lineup changes Self has made. Given Kansas State’s struggles on the defensive glass and a Jayhawks team that has the ability to create matchup issues with Flory Bidunga and Hunter Dickinson playing at the same time, Kansas should see plenty of success in the paint. The Wildcat defense is no stranger to allowing some 3-pointers — as we saw with Arizona State’s 12 made 3s on Tuesday — and I wouldn’t be surprised if the likes of Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffin remained in good form from beyond the arc on Saturday. The previous meeting between these teams produced 158 total points, and that was with neither team shooting the ball well from beyond the arc. All things considered, the over is the only way I can look in this matchup.

Kansas vs Kansas State prediction: Over 140 available at time of publishing. Playable to 140.5

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