Kansas Jayhawks vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/03/25

The high-profile game of the Big 12 Monday slate takes place in Houston, as the Cougars will host the Kansas Jayhawks in a rematch of what was an instant classic back on January 25. In that game, the Jayhawks held a 6-point lead with 18 seconds remaining and were heading to the free-throw line to seal the victory in overtime, before Dajuan Harris missed both free throws, allowing Houston to score 6 points in the span of 15 seconds to send the game to double overtime. From there, the Cougars emerged with a 92-86 victory in a game that appeared to send both programs in completely different directions over the last 6 weeks. After knocking off Texas Tech and Cincinnati last week, Houston has locked up the Big 12 regular-season title for the 2nd consecutive season, while Kansas is mired in its 2nd disappointing campaign in a row en route to a middling finish in the conference standings once again. The Jayhawks just lost a game to Texas Tech in a great spot last Saturday in which they appeared to be lacking in effort and energy. That won’t cut it against Houston, and I suspect we could be in for a statement victory from Kelvin Sampson’s group.

Kansas’ road woes have been well-documented this season. In fact, the Jayhawks’ effective field-goal percentage drops from nearly 57% on their home court down to just over 48% on the road. That doesn’t bode well against a Houston team that is striving for a #1 seed and should play loose and free at home against a team it knows it matches up well with. The Cougars’ defense (ranked 2nd in adjusted efficiency and two-point defense) should be able to contain a Kansas offense that is very reliant on scoring inside. Against teams that can defend the paint effectively, the Jayhawks have to rely more on their jump-shooting, which has been extremely lackluster away from home. It’s no surprise that Kansas’ average scoring margin drops a whopping 15 points on the road compared to when Bill Self’s squad is at Allen Fieldhouse. Furthermore, Houston’s offense is healthier than it was in the first meeting, and the Cougars are now up to 3rd in three-point percentage on offense and 10th in offensive rebounding rate per BartTorvik, which were particularly important in the win over Kansas at the Phog. It’s a big number considering the relative lack of motivation for Houston in this spot but I can only look toward the home team here.

Kansas vs Houston prediction: Houston -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Kansas vs Houston predictions.