Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 11/26/24

While the AP Poll may not consider this a top 10 matchup, for all intents and purposes, this standalone game between the Duke Blue Devils (4-1) and the Kansas Jayhawks (5-0) is a top 10 matchup. The Blue Devils come into this game having already played out west at Arizona on Friday. Duke pulled out the road victory thanks to some incredible defense, holding the Wildcats to 55 points and 0.81 points per possession on their home floor. Offensively, the Blue Devils were propelled by their 2 marquee freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, who scored 37 combined points. The Blue Devils also dominated the glass, out-rebounding the Wildcats 43-30. On the other side of the floor, the Jayhawks have not played for a week. Their last outing was an 84-66 win over UNC Wilmington in which they scored 1.20 points per possession while holding the Seahawks to 0.94 points per possession and under 40% from the field. For what it’s worth, this is the first time these teams will meet since the Champion’s Classic in 2022. The Jayhawks have beaten the Blue Devils 4 out of their last 5 meetings dating back to 2013. 

This is a matchup of 2 very strong defenses, as Duke is 1st nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency while Kansas is 14th. The Blue Devils and the Jayhawks are also very good at limiting second-chance opportunities, both boasting top 75 marks in second-chance attempts and field goal percentage per Haslametrics. Offensively, both teams have plenty of potential, but we have seen each unit struggle at times this season – most notably Duke’s 2nd half performance against Kentucky and Kansas’ 1st half against Michigan State. The Blue Devils and the Jayhawks are top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but their shot-making has been inconsistent at times – especially away from home. Furthermore, neither team gets to the free throw line much, as Duke and Kansas are both outside the top 310 in free throw rate. 

I don’t expect this game to have too much pace to it. While Duke and Kansas have been very good in transition, they are even better at preventing transition opportunities. For reference, Duke and Kansas are both top 15 in percentage of total field goals allowed in transition per Hoop-Math. Furthermore, T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is known to be an Under venue when it comes to neutral-site college basketball games, similar to that of Madison Square Garden. Give me the under in what should be an exciting matchup between 2 blue blood programs. 

Kansas vs Duke prediction: Under 149.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 148.

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