Iowa State Cyclones vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/22/25

One of the best games on the Saturday college basketball slate comes in the Big 12, where the Houston Cougars are set to host the Iowa State Cyclones in a clash of the best teams in this conference. On paper, Houston is the better team in this matchup, and I wouldn’t disagree that the Cougars have the higher floor between these programs this season. With that said, I’m optimistic in Iowa State’s chances to hang with Kelvin Sampson’s bunch at the Fertitta Center, a place where we just saw Texas Tech go in and emerge with a victory back on February 1. Houston is still dealing with a bit of lingering injury trouble heading into this game, as Emanuel Sharp has not appeared to be anywhere close to his usual self offensively since making his return from an ankle injury a couple of games ago. While the Cougars have been able to survive (and even thrive) against solid competition without Sharp, it would obviously be a big boost for their offense if he was close to 100% on Saturday. 

On the other side, it’s clear that the shooting ability of sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic was sorely missed in the current Cyclones rotation, as Iowa State has won each of its games by double digits since his return to the lineup. Additionally, Barttorvik has Iowa State as the 4th-ranked team since Momcilovic’s return, two slots ahead of this Cougars teams. Iowa State when head coach T. J. Otzelberger will need to rely on his bench unit and mix up the rotations against this ferocious Houston defense, especially without Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones in the lineup. The Cyclones offense is one that can get to the foul line with consistent success, but it also thrives against defenses that don’t guard the 3-point arc very well. It just so happens that Houston has really struggled in both of these departments over the last month, as the Cougars are ranked 322nd in 3-point rate allowed and 252nd in 3-point percentage defense since February 1 (Barttorvik). In that same time frame, Houston’s defense is 302nd in free-throw rate allowed, which should allow the Cyclones to hang around in this game, even in a hostile environment. Lastly, Iowa State has won 2 of its 3 games against Houston a year ago, with the lone defeat coming by 8 points on the road. That Cougars team — led by all-world point guard Jamal Shead — was a better unit than the one the Cyclones will face on Saturday, even if some of the advanced metrics would disagree. All things considered, I’ll back the Cyclones to keep things close in this clash of the titans. 

Iowa State vs Houston prediction: Iowa State +12.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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