Iowa Hawkeyes ncaab vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 01/17/25

We’ve got a Big Ten battle on the West Coast on our hands when the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the UCLA Bruins on Friday from Pauley Pavilion. The market movement and line suggest that the Bruins are the side in this game, but I just can’t get there with this number, especially considering what we’ve seen from UCLA in Big Ten conference play to this point. The Bruins have had numerous opportunities to impress, including catching Michigan in a great spot last week and going to Maryland after head coach Mick Cronin called out the team’s lack of effort a few days prior. What happened in those games? Well, the Bruins were beaten soundly in both contests. Now, UCLA heads home following a pair of losses on the East Coast in a desperate spot. However, the Bruins will be taking on an Iowa team that just came off a loss as well, and the Hawkeyes haven’t had to travel much over the last 3 days, having just played USC on Tuesday. There’s no inherent scheduling or situational edge for the Bruins, and I can’t trust Cronin’s team to get off the mat and win this game by three full possessions.

From a matchup standpoint, both teams will have advantages over the other in certain areas. Iowa’s offense is easily a top 10-15 unit in the nation and the Hawkeyes will be taking on a Bruins defense that has struggled mightily in conference play (103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency). UCLA’s offense should have a leg up on a very poor Iowa transition defense in theory, but the Bruins rank 254th in adjusted tempo per KenPom and 243rd at Barttorvik, so this is not the ideal game for an offense that likes to grind out possessions. UCLA’s defense is excellent, but this is a unit that has still allowed 75 or more points in 3 consecutive games, including 94 points at home to a Michigan offense that is fairly similar to what they’ll see against Iowa. The Bruins take a ton of long 2-point shots and not enough shots from beyond the arc, so this offense could be in real trouble if they don’t dominate the shot volume in this game. I’m expecting a back-and-forth affair with plenty of lead changes, so let’s grab the 7 points with the Hawkeyes on the road.

Iowa vs UCLA prediction: Iowa +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5

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