Indiana Hoosiers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 12/13/24

After losing back-to-back games against Louisville and Gonzaga in their MTE, the Indiana Hoosiers (8-2) have recovered with 4 consecutive wins against Providence, Sam Houston State, Miami (OH) and Minnesota. With their win over Minnesota, the Hoosiers are 1-0 in the Big Ten — and they hope to maintain their undefeated conference record in their first true road game of the season at Nebraska. Unlike the Hoosiers, the ‘Huskers (6-2) lost their first Big Ten game — and it wasn’t even close. They were destroyed by Michigan State 89-52, held no lead and scored just 0.73 points per possession compared to the Spartans’ 1.25.

This seems like a solid bounce-back spot for the Cornhuskers, a team that lost just 1 home game last season. In fact, Big Ten teams have thrived in spots such as this one (playing at home off a loss on the road) for a few years, as they are 10-5-1 ATS this season and 91-61-1 ATS since the start of the 2022-2023 season. That trend should continue given Nebraska’s physicality and ability to defend. The Cornhuskers have a top 35 defense per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, and they are top 25 in forced turnover rate – which will come in handy against an Indiana squad that has trouble taking care of the ball. For reference, the Hoosiers rank 286th in turnover rate while averaging 14 turnovers per game. Another advantage for the Cornhuskers is their ability to negate offense at the rim. The Hoosiers are top 60 in rim rate with multiple gifted front court players like Malik Reneau, Oumar Ballo and Mackenzie Mgbako, but the ‘Huskers are built to take that away with a defense that allows just 16.1% of shots at the rim per Hoop-Math. In a bounce-back spot against a team playing its first true road game, it’s Nebraska or pass for me in this Big Ten matchup on Friday night. For what it’s worth, Nebraska is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or fewer since the start of last season.

Indiana vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska -4.5 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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