Illinois Fighting Illini vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 01/30/25

The Illinois Fighting Illini (14-6) snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 83-74 home win over Northwestern on Sunday and hope to keep that momentum going when they travel to Lincoln to play the flailing Nebraska Cornhuskers (12-8). The ‘Huskers have dropped 6 games in a row, including 2 games at home as favorites – a role in which they were a perfect 12-0 dating back to the start of last season. Now, Nebraska finds itself in a deserving position as a home underdog against one of the better teams in the Big Ten. 

I’m expecting points in this game. Illinois plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but the Illini tend to play faster when Tomislav Ivisic is off the floor. His multi-game absence due to mono is expected to extend into Thursday night’s game, so the Illini are unlikely to have him in Nebraska. Ivisic is obviously a great player and one that is essential for Illinois’ postseason success. However, the Illini play almost 3 possessions faster without Ivisic on the floor, as they tend to attack more in transition without him – and are much more efficient in doing so. In fact, Illinois’ transition offense is near the 88th percentile when Ivisic is off the floor, which is substantially better than the near 34th percentile transition efficiency grade when he is on it.

Nebraska is unlikely to balk at Illinois’ desired pace of play. The Cornhuskers have played 5 games against teams that rank in the top 70 of KenPom’s average possession length, and all but 1 of those games surged past 160 total points. The Cornhuskers are 16th in the Big 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 17th in opposing effective field goal percentage, all while struggling to defend the three-point line with any sort of conviction. As such, Nebraska is 360th nationally in three-point rate allowed, in addition to 206th in opposing three-point percentage. The Cornhuskers have allowed their Big Ten opponents to make 38.3% of their perimeter shots, which is dead last in the conference and not exactly an inspiring trait against an Illinois offense that loves to shoot from range. Offensively, Nebraska is hit or miss. However, the Cornhuskers are better at home, and figure to have extra opportunities at or around the rim without Ivisic’s shot-blocking to deter them. This total has come down slightly since open, so I’m going to go against the market and take the Over in this one given Illinois’ expected uptick in tempo.

Illinois vs Nebraska prediction: Over 153.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.

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