Houston Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/24/25

One of the best games on the weekday college basketball slate comes in the Big 12 on Monday, where the Houston Cougars are set to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, in a clash of the conference’s best teams. On paper, Houston is the better team in this matchup, and I wouldn’t disagree that the Cougars have the higher floor between these programs this season. With that said, I’m optimistic for Texas Tech to hang with Kelvin Sampson’s bunch at United Supermarkets Arena, especially since we just saw Texas Tech go into Houston and emerge with a victory back on February 1. The natural angle for some bettors is going to be the impulse to back the Cougars in a road revenge spot, but it’s important to remember that the Red Raiders did beat Houston without the services of star forward JT Toppin, who was controversially ejected in the opening minutes of the first meeting. With that said, even though Houston appears to be moving forward from its injury troubles and Emmanuel Sharp looks to be as healthy as he’s been in well over a month, I’m still inclined to back the Red Raiders as home underdogs in this one. 

Texas Tech has established itself as a clear top-10 team since the turn of the calendar year (6th at KenPom, 7th at Barttorvik), and a healthy Red Raiders team can compete with any unit in the country. This is a team that can generate easy offense and has the capability to also hit tough shots, which is a major key against a ferocious Houston defense that makes things extraordinarily hard on opposing guards. The Red Raiders offense is one that doesn’t turn the ball over much, and it also thrives against defenses that don’t guard the three-point arc very well (14th in three-point percentage). It just so happens that Houston has really struggled in that department this season, as the Cougars are ranked 322nd in three-point rate allowed and 288th in three-point percentage defense (Barttorvik). It’s also worth mentioning that Houston’s defense is 339th in free-throw rate allowed, and we can expect the Red Raiders to hang around in this game and potentially even get a few favorable calls down the stretch in front of their home fans. For as good as the Cougars are, Houston has still been extremely fortunate to emerge victorious in road games against Kansas and Arizona over the last month. I believe Houston’s unblemished road record finally takes a hit against an excellent Texas Tech team on Monday.

Houston vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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