Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 03/11/25

The WCC tournament title game will take place in Las Vegas on Monday, as the Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in what should be a heated battle between the top 2 teams in the conference. The first 2 meetings between these teams won’t tell us everything, but it can be instructive as it relates to this matchup. In those games, Gonzaga closed as a 2.5-point favorite on the road and a 6.5-point favorite at home. While the Bulldogs ultimately lost both of those games, Mark Few’s team was in great position to win those game before ultimately falling short in the final minutes. With that in mind, the fact that we are not getting much of a line adjustment toward Saint Mary’s in this matchup feels like the market taking a stand in favor of a Gonzaga team that still profiles better than the Gaels from a metrics perspective and has historically owned this tournament in an arena that can essentially be referred to as “The Kennel South.”

The first 2 meetings saw the Zags turn in a couple of paltry shooting performances from beyond the arc, with many of those misses coming on wide-open looks. It’s hard to anticipate that continuing, especially since Gonzaga just went 4-of-17 from deep against San Francisco on Monday. On the other side, the Gaels (217th in free-throw rate) offense shot over their heads in the second meeting, while nearly doubling Gonzaga in free-throw attempts over the 2 games. Gonzaga will likely go as far as its guards take them in this game, and I expect the Bulldogs backcourt to be more aggressive in this game, especially since Ryan Nembhard and Khalif Battle are essential to the success of this offense. The Bulldogs also get a ton of points at the rim thanks to Graham Ike and Ben Gregg in the middle, and both players are in the midst of great individual runs in recent weeks. If the Gaels are forced to collapse on the big men, there should be lanes for the Gonzaga guards to cut to the rim, or free themselves away from the help defense for wide open 3-point attempts. While they struggled mightily from the field in the first 2 H2H, as long as the Bulldogs don’t turn in another horrific shooting performance, they should exact some revenge on their rivals on Tuesday.

Gonzaga vs St Mary’s prediction: Gonzaga -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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