Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/05/25

We’ve got another excellent slate of hoops in the SEC on Wednesday, including a titanic matchup between the Florida Gators and Alabama Crimson Tide in a showdown between 2 of the best teams in the nation in Tuscaloosa. From a situational perspective, Alabama would be expected to be the more motivated side following a devastating loss at the buzzer against Tennessee. However, given that this game could go a long way into deciding the final #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it’s hard to think that one team would be more “motivated” than the other in this top-10 matchup. With that in mind, even though Alabama is at home, the Crimson Tide are in a brutal sandwich spot with a massive game against Auburn on the horizon. The Crimson Tide are getting a lot of respect over a top-5 Florida team that has already shown the capability to pull off upsets on the road in the SEC (see: a victory at Auburn on February 8).

Florida can beat you in a number of a different ways but it all starts in the backcourt. The exceptional guard trio of Will Richard, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a massive edge for Todd Golden’s team, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if Florida was able to spread out the Crimson Tide on the perimeter and generate wide-open looks from beyond the arc. Florida should look to get out and run as much as possible, especially since Alabama is not a team that creates havoc or forces live-ball turnovers on defense. There’s also the matter of Alabama’s turnover problems when the Crimson Tide have the ball (180th in turnover percentage), which doesn’t bode well against a talented and experienced Florida defense that comes at you in waves and should be hunting for steals all game long.

Additionally, the Gators are elite on the glass (7th in offensive rebounding percentage) while the Tide are 161st in defensive rebounding rate, so there should be chances for Florida to attack the glass and generate second-chance points. While Alabama is an excellent offensive-rebounding team in its own right, I don’t expect the size and length of the Crimson Tide to be as much of a factor this time around against an outstanding Gators frontcourt that features a trio of 7-footers that should be able to hold their own on the glass, in addition to creating mismatches with their talent and prowess on the offensive end. Overall, Florida is the more well-rounded team for my money and I’ll be taking the Gators to win this one outright. Give me the points with Florida, and I’ll also be sprinkling a little on the Gators money line too.

Florida vs Alabama prediction: Florida +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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