Duke Blue Devils vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 02/22/25

A few weeks ago, this would’ve been one of my most anticipated games of the February slate. However, Illinois has been pretty disappointing in recent weeks, and it doesn’t help matters that the Illini are dealing with a flu outbreak that completely overwhelmed the roster prior to their previous game against Wisconsin. On the other side, Duke has been rolling, as the Blue Devils enter this matchup with a 23-3 record on the year (15-1 in ACC play). With that said, it’s not as if Duke has played great competition in what has been a putrid ACC this season. What the Blue Devils do have is a terrific defense, and that should travel to Madison Square Garden for this neutral site matchup against an Illinois offense that shouldn’t be at full health on Saturday. Despite some advantages that Duke has on paper, I’m going to focus on the total in this inter-conference clash at MSG instead of a side.

Neutral-site unders at Madison Square Garden have been a consistent moneymaker over the years, and we have a heavy favorite in Duke that should look to control the game by playing at a deliberate pace, as the Blue Devils sit at 272nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom. An up-tempo game is one that favors the way Illinois likes to play, but it’s reasonable to suggest that Brad Underwood’s side may slow things down a bit here, especially if they are compromised in any way due to the flu. The numbers seem to bear that logic out, as the Illini are 43rd percentile in pace of play over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). Not only does Duke play at a slow tempo, but the Blue Devils are elite on the glass and shouldn’t allow many second-chance opportunities as a result, which is imperative when backing an under in college basketball. I don’t think we’ll see a large disparity in shot volume as well, which should also favor the under in a game where possessions should be reduced compared to what the season-long data would suggest. Let’s back the under at The World’s Most Famous Arena on Saturday.

Illinois vs Duke prediction: Under 155.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.

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