Dayton Flyers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/25/24

Feast Week is here, which means it is time for the Maui Invitational! The final game on the opening day of the in-season tournament will be an interesting matchup between the Dayton Flyers (5-0) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1). In their most recent game, the Flyers dismantled New Mexico State 74-53 in the friendly confines of Dayton Arena. They scored 1.21 points per possession while holding the Aggies to 0.87, and they dominated the boards as well – out-rebounding NMSU by 10. North Carolina was also convincingly victorious in its last outing, as the Tar Heels defeated Hawaii 87-69 on Friday. It was their 2nd true road game of the season, and being accustomed to “island time” should be an advantage in this particular matchup against the Flyers – who have yet to play anywhere other than Dayton, Ohio. 

Coming into this season, the biggest concern for North Carolina was replacing Armando Bacot as a rim-protector and a post scorer. While those concerns are valid, the Tar Heels have been solid in the post thus far. Per Haslametrics, the Heels rank 20th in near-proximity attempts allowed and 5th in opposing near-proximity field-goal percentage, and they have been equally as productive on the offensive end – ranking top 30 in both of the aforementioned metrics. Without an advantage in the front court, it will be difficult for the Flyers to keep up with the Tar Heels for 40 minutes. Dayton has a talented backcourt, but North Carolina’s guards are some of the most talented in the country. The Tar Heels don’t turn the ball over, as evidenced by the nation’s best turnover rate, and they have much more efficient and reliable shooters. As a team, the Tar Heels connect on 34.8% of their three-point attempts and 82.6% of their free-throws, while the Flyers rank outside the top 250 in those metrics. For reference, Dayton has made just 30.3% of their perimeter attempts and 64.9% of their free throws, which doesn’t instill much confidence in their ability to make shots in their first road game. Given their slow pace of play and ability to limit transition opportunities, the Flyers may be able to disrupt the Heels’ uptempo style of play, but North Carolina still has the shot-makers to succeed in the halfcourt. I’m laying it with RJ Davis and the Tar Heels in the Maui Invitational nightcap.

Dayton vs North Carolina prediction: UNC -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

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