Colorado Buffaloes vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Monday, 11/25/24

The Michigan State Spartans will take on the Colorado Buffaloes in the second game of the Maui Invitational. Both teams come into this tournament fairly unscathed, with the only loss between the 2 teams being when the Spartans fell to the #1 team in the country, the Kansas Jayhawks. This is always the most fun early-season tournament of the year, and there may be some value on the total in this matchup. We will look at the game going over the 145.5 points total.

As most totals handicapping goes, the pace is very important in this matchup. Tom Izzo’s Spartans have looked to slow down the pace the last few seasons, ranking outside the top 300 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. This season looks to be a bit different, as Izzo has younger guards at his disposal who thrive in the transition game, and every game Michigan State has played thus far has gone over 70 possessions apiece. The Spartans rank in the 90th percentile in transition frequency and will be going against a team that defends it in just the 23rd percentile (Synergy). Michigan State may be able to create even more transition opportunities than normal in this game by forcing turnovers against this suspect Colorado backcourt, which has had a tough time taking care of the ball early this season against worse competition (344th nationally in TO rate). The Spartans are also due for some positive three-point regression on the offensive end, as guys like Jaden Akins, Frankie Fidler and Tre Holloman are all shooting well below expectation this season. There is no better place for positive shooting regression than on the soft Lahaina Civic Center rims.

When the Buffaloes are able to take care of the ball, there is some efficiency to be had through the post-up game. Coach Tad Boyle will work through his big man duo of Elijah Malone and Trevor Baskin, who should have success against a Spartan defense that is 25th percentile in defending post-up actions. Izzo typically refuses to double in the post, so expect the Colorado bigs to have a great day on the interior. Totals are typically inflated by 7-8 points due to the soft Maui rims, but the pace in this game being quicker than most projections say is a big key in finding value here. Add in the three-point regression due for Michigan State and the post-up efficiency of Colorado, and we have a bet on the Over.

Colorado vs Michigan State: Over 145.5 (-110) available at time of publishing, playable at that number.

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