California Bears vs Stanford Cardinal Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/12/25

The ACC Tournament continues tonight with a second-round matchup between the 15th-seeded California Golden Bears and the 7th-seeded Stanford Cardinal. Cal enters fresh off a thrilling double-overtime victory over Virginia Tech, a game in which they nearly squandered a second-half lead but ultimately pulled through in clutch moments. Now the Bears face a slightly tougher challenge in their Bay Area rivals. On paper, these teams match up closely. Offensively, Cal holds an advantage — ranking 125th in points per game compared to Stanford’s 211th. However, Stanford makes up ground with superior 3-point shooting. Meanwhile, Cal dominates the boards — especially on the offensive glass, which could prove crucial. The x-factor in this game is Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud, a 7’1” French center who averages 20.1 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Cal’s ability to win the rebounding battle could be neutralized if Raynaud takes over inside.

From a handicapping perspective, this game is intriguing. Cal has been strong against the spread, going 10-3 ATS on the road, while Stanford has struggled at 3-8 ATS away from home. Additionally, Cal thrives as an underdog whereas Stanford has been unreliable as a favorite. There are further stats to back Cal, but you get the point. The challenge? The previous matchup saw Stanford as a 6.5-point favorite, and it barely missed covering. The line is set at 6.5 again, putting the Card in an ATS “revenge spot.” The general rule of thumb would be to take Stanford, as the books are offering the same line. However, I’ll lean toward California at +6.5 but keeping it a 1-star play. Teasing Cal should also be safe.

California vs Stanford prediction: Cal +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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