Baylor Bears vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/21/24

The Baylor Bears will face off with the St. John’s Red Storm in the opening game of the Bahamas championship. The winner of this matchup will play the winner of Tennessee and Virginia in this mini 4 team tournament. Baylor has gotten back on track since their opening night blowout loss to Gonzaga, winning 3 straight contests including an impressive 72-67 win over Arkansas. For the Johnnie’s, they have played up to the hype thus far, as they have a perfect 4-0 record including a comfortable win over the New Mexico Lobos. This should be a fun matchup between 2 talented teams, but there is an edge to be had on one side.

After Baylor’s embarrassing loss to Gonzaga where they gave up 101 points, coach Scott Drew decided that a change was needed on the defensive end right away. The adjustment he made vs Arkansas was switching to his 1-1-3 zone that he made famous during the early 2010’s. This gave a below average shooting team in Arkansas some real problems, and it could give St. John’s similar issues. Drew also made it a point to slow the pace down and prevent transition opportunities, an area in which the Red Storm thrive as well. Forcing St. John’s to become a jump shot reliant team should do wonders for a Baylor team that hasn’t been great when playing man to man.

Baylor also has avenues to success on the offensive end, and that’s starting with the offensive glass. They are 15th in the nation in offensive rebound rate, led by Norchad Omier, and they can exploit the one true weakness the Johnnie’s have defensively (166th in defensive rebound rate). The Bears should also have success in the pick and roll game with their plethora of guard options, and St. John’s has been poor defending these actions to start the season (19th percentile vs pick and roll handler, per Synergy).

These factors along with the Bears being tested away from home should give them the edge over a Red Storm team that hasn’t left the friendly confines of New York this season. Unless St. John’s has an outlier shooting day, Baylor’s defense matches up well when playing their zone, and they have more scoring talent. Back the Bears in the Bahamas on Thursday night.

Baylor -2.5 (-105) at time of publishing, playable at that number