Auburn Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/04/25

The Auburn Tigers (27-2) went into Rupp Arena on Saturday and put on a clinic, scoring 1.27 points per possession with just 8 turnovers. They have now won 6 games in a row and will take that winning streak on the road for the final time this season to play the Texas A&M Aggies (20-9) in College Station on Tuesday night. Unlike Auburn, the Aggies have lost 4 in a row after Saturday’s 89-70 defeat at Florida. It was the 2nd consecutive game in which Texas A&M surrendered at least 85 points, as the Gators connected on 53% of their shots inside the arc and 42% of their shots beyond it. Interestingly enough, this will be the first time these teams meet this season.

Auburn may be without Denver Jones for this game, but I would need quite a few more points to confidently back Texas A&M here. The Aggies have been pretty bad on both sides of the floor of late, as they rank in the 20th percentile or worse in offensive and defensive rating over their last 5 games. They’re extremely hard to trust offensively, especially in this matchup, as their only consistent path to success on that end of the floor has been through second-chance points via offensive rebounds. Furthermore, they have not shown any sort of reliability or consistency as jump-shooters, as proven by their season-long metrics in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. For reference, the Aggies are in the 14th and 18th percentile, respectively, in those metrics (CBB Analytics). 

Auburn has consistently proven its worth as a top team in the nation, and the Tigers have a sparkling record away from home. In fact, they have covered the spread in 5 consecutive road games, while Texas A&M has failed to cover in its last 4 games overall. That is due in large part to their ability to score no matter where they play. The Tigers boast a 55.4% effective field goal percentage when playing away from home – which is good for 12th nationally. They also connect on nearly 39% of their 3-point attempts away from home, which doesn’t bode well for Texas A&M. The Aggies are 357th in 3-point rate allowed, while their SEC opponents have made 36.5% of their perimeter shots against them to this point. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’m laying it with Auburn.

Auburn vs Texas A&M prediction: Auburn Tigers -5.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.    

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