Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 02/05/25

The Arkansas Razorbacks (13-8) earned a very emotional win on Saturday in John Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena. Both teams being without starting guards, Woo Pig Sooie was simply better than the Kentucky Wildcats on the offensive end of the floor. The Razorbacks made 52% of their three-point attempts, scoring 1.22 points per possession and turning the ball over just 8 times. They were also very good inside the arc, converting on 57.6% of those two-point attempts. Arkansas has now won 2 of its last 3, but has to make the journey to Austin on Wednesday for its 2nd consecutive road game in what I consider a let down spot against the Texas Longhorns (15-7). Since losing its first 3 conference games, Texas has found a groove. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 6, including a victory over a surging Missouri squad and a massive comeback win over in-state rival Texas A&M.

Given how much emotion and energy was spent in their win over Kentucky on Saturday, I think fading the Razorbacks in Austin is the way to go on Wednesday night. Their perimeter shooting should quickly regress back to the mean against Texas, as the Razorbacks have made fewer than 29% of their perimeter attempts against SEC opponents – and that includes what they did in Lexington. The Longhorns have the 2nd-lowest three-point rate allowed in conference play, and their defense as a whole has clamped down over the last couple of weeks – giving up more than 70 points just once in their last 4 games. Offensively, Texas should have success off the dribble, in transition and getting to the free throw line – where they lead the SEC in shooting percentage (81.3%). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a positive perimeter shooting performance for the Longhorns against an Arkansas defense that allows SEC opponents to hit nearly 38% of their three-point attempts. Lay it with the ‘Horns.

Arkansas vs Texas prediction: Texas Longhorns -7 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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