Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/18/25

The Alabama Crimson Tide (14-3) will hit the road for the 3rd time in 4 games on Saturday when they travel up to Lexington to play the Kentucky Wildcats (14-3). Alabama’s offense was nowhere to be found at home against Ole Miss on Tuesday, as the Tide scored just 0.84 points per possession in a 74-64 loss – including only 25% from the 3-point line. They also turned the ball over 21 times, which is tough to overcome in a league as stacked as the SEC is this year. Kentucky. It was the lowest offensive output of the season for the Tide, and the fewest amount of points a Nate Oats Alabama team has scored since the 2023 NCAA Tournament loss to San Diego State. Meanwhile, Kentucky has reeled off 2 straight wins following their loss at Georgia, scoring at least 81 points in both of those wins. Defense is still a concern for the Wildcats, though, despite their home win over a Wade Taylor-less Texas A&M on Tuesday.

It’s not often that we see college basketball totals north of 177 points, but that’s exactly what we have in this Saturday SEC showdown at Rupp Arena – and for good reason. Alabama is the fastest-paced team in the country given their #1 adjusted tempo (KenPom) and their 78.4 possessions per game, and like I mentioned when Kentucky hosted Florida, the Wildcats are not going to balk at playing with pace under head coach Mark Pope considering they are top 30 in adjusted tempo and raw possessions per game themselves. In addition to blistering pace, both of these teams can absolutely fill it up, carrying top 15 marks in adjusted offensive efficiency.

In order to surpass a total this high, there has to be almost a complete devoid of defense. Well, that’s extremely possible here. Kentucky’s defense has been atrocious almost this entire season, but specifically in conference play. The Wildcats are 15th in the SEC in efficiency and 12th in opposing effective field goal percentage, while carrying the 2nd-lowest opposing average possession length – meaning they don’t force their SEC opponents into rushed or bad shots. The Wildcats also are 15th out of 16 SEC teams in opposing free throw rate, putting their conference opponents on the line more than 47% of the time. Alabama hasn’t been very good defensively, either. In their games against top 25 offenses, the Tide have allowed an average of 83.75 points per game (4 games). All things considered, this feels like another up-and-down affair at home for Kentucky. It would not surprise me if both teams surpassed 100. 

Alabama vs Kentucky prediction: Over 178.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 180.5.

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