College Basketball Picks

The first game of the Sweet 16 takes us to the East regional in New Jersey for a BYU Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction. The Crimson Tide is part of the SEC steamrolling of the tournament, and they got here with wins over Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. St. Mary’s is a slow, defensive-minded team, but the Tide will have to change gears completely when planning for BYU. The Cougars dispatched VCU in the opening round before outgunning Wisconsin in round two, 91-89. These two teams are probably going to blow out the lights on the scoreboard, so expect plenty of points. My BYU vs Alabama prediction though is for the Tide to ultimately win and cover.

Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in the country. The Nate Oates method of basketball is straightforward—do something fast, and operate in volume. The Tide will shoot 3s or layups, and little else. They also pressure the ball defensively and get a lot of transition looks. BYU shares some similarities. The Cougs do not play as fast, but they are one of the most prolific 3-pt shooting teams in the nation. You know the modern basketball axiom: 3 points are worth more than 2 points, and both teams like to prove it true. Here’s the decisive factor for me though. The Tide defend the arc at an elite level. They chase teams off the line, and they make those outside looks tough. I think that is the difference in the game. If BYU has a downturn in their ability to hit 3s, as I expect they will, Alabama should eventually pull away. I like the Tide to win and cover.

BYU vs Alabama Prediction: Alabama -5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Terrapins have had their fair share of tough beats this season, and what seemed like another heartbreaking defeat turned into a thrilling win when freshman Derik Queen took the ball with just 3.7 seconds left and scored the game-winning layup to defeat Colorado State. The Terrapins aren’t the only ones who were lucky to be moving on, as the Gators had a tough time against the Huskies in the second round, winning by just 2 points despite shooting 46% from the field. Can we say both teams are lucky to have made it to the Sweet 16? Absolutely. However, it shouldn’t be considered a fluke that they’ve made it this far based on their performances all season long.  

According to KenPom, the Gators are ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Maryland sits at 22nd. On the defensive end, KenPom has Maryland ranked 6th in defense where the Gators are close behind at 11th. The Terrapins likely would have earned a higher seed in this tournament if it weren’t for their buzzer-beater losses to Michigan State and Michigan, as well as a heartbreaking three-pointer by OSU with just a few seconds left. This Maryland team is loaded with talent, with all 5 of their starters averaging double digits this season.

The same can be said about Florida, with 4 of their starters averaging double digits, but I think the big difference here is each team’s ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. Florida loves to shoot the three-ball, hitting 35.6% of their shots from deep and holding their opponents to just 29.3%. As for Maryland, they don’t shoot it as much as Florida, but they’re shooting 37.5% from deep while holding their opponents to just 30.2%. I think this game is going to be a close one, but I believe the Gators have the advantage in rebounding the ball along with their ability to shoot the ball from deep. Give me the Gators to cover and march on to the Elite 8.

Maryland vs Florida prediction: Florida -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There are 7 Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, but only 2 are going head-to-head. The Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats will be facing each other for the 3rd time this season when they battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Outside of the top teams in the nation, whom Tennessee obviously won’t run into as a #2 seed until at least the Elite 8, Kentucky is the last opponent the Volunteers would want to face at this stage. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series with a 78-73 road win followed by a 75-64 victory at Rupp Arena. Are those results repeatable? Probably. Kentucky held Tennessee to a combined 14-for-61 (23 percent) shooting from three-point range in those 2 contests. That is nothing out of the ordinary for the ‘Cats, who are 24th in the nation in three-point defense (30.6 percent).

Kentucky is better than its 24-11 (10-8 SEC) record suggests. Former San Diego State guard Lamont Butler missed 9 games due to injury but is looking better by the day. After doing nothing in Round 1 against Troy, Butler delivered 14 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds and 3 steals during an 84-75 victory over Illinois. Tennessee, which ousted Wofford and UCLA in the first 2 rounds, is also playing well. However, this is clearly a matchup the Vols do not love. Is Kentucky going to beat conference rival Tennessee for the 3rd time this season? Maybe, maybe not. But getting 4.5 points, the value is definitely with UK.

Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction: Kentucky +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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