Xavier Musketeers vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/19/25

The final game of the First Four comes out of the Midwest Region on Wednesday night, when we’re treated to a 2023 Sweet 16 rematch between the Xavier Musketeers and the Texas Longhorns. The winner will move on to the field of 64 and travel to Milwaukee as an 11-seed to take on 6-seed Illinois on Friday night. The Musketeers didn’t manage to win any games in the Big East Tournament, coming up just short in an 89-87 loss to Marquette, but they certainly finished the regular season strong, racking up 7 consecutive wins to close the year with a respectable 13-7 record in conference play. Meanwhile, the Longhorns finished just 6-12 in the SEC, but the conference as a whole was a gauntlet, with 14 teams earning invitations to the big dance. Texas was on the bubble heading into the SEC Conference Tournament but secured their spot with wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M before falling to Tennessee in the Quarterfinal.

This is an intriguing matchup, and it won’t be short of any star power on either side. Texas may be the underdog in this contest, but they have one of the top guards in the country in Tre Johnson, who led the SEC with 19.8 ppg. Johnson is talented enough to carry his team to 1 or 2 wins in this tournament, but I ultimately land on Xavier coming out the victor. The Musketeers will rely on Zach Freemantle, who averaged 17.3 ppg and was notably absent in mid-December when Xavier lost in overtime on the road to UConn and lost by just 2 points to Marquette later in the week. Xavier showed resilience without their best player in those games, but with Freemantle at full health, the Musketeers have the edge against Texas. Per BartTorvik, the Musketeers have been more efficient both offensively and defensively over their last 10 games than their season averages, whereas the Longhorns have regressed. Most notable are the defensive numbers for Texas, who rank 69th in defensive efficiency on the season but rank 129th across their last 10 games. Texas won when their backs were up against the wall in the SEC Tournament, but these teams are trending in opposite directions come madness time. Lay the points with Xavier.

Xavier vs Texas prediction: Xavier -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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