Xavier Musketeers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/21/25

One of the final games of the first round of the NCAA Tournament takes place on Friday between the Xavier Musketeers and Illinois Fighting Illini. Xavier is fresh off a thrilling comeback victory over the Texas Longhorns in what was an instant classic First Four game in Dayton on Wednesday, and I suspect that the Musketeers might not be operating at full rest with this quick turnaround into playing Illinois in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Not only will the Illini presumably have the backing of the crowd in this game, but Illinois hasn’t played since last Friday, so it clearly has a major rest advantage as well. With that said, I’ll avoid picking a side and instead, make a wager on the total in this contest.

The Illini have had a tumultuous season to this point, but Brad Underwood’s team has battled through key injuries, illness and a host of other issues as well. Illinois finally got healthy in recent weeks, and we saw things immediately turn around for Kasparas Jakučionis and company in massive wins over over Iowa, Michigan and Purdue in consecutive games to close the regular season. It’s worth pointing out that Illinois is still due for some positive shooting regression as well, and this matchup is extremely favorable for an offense that has shown the capability to be a top 10-15 unit in the nation at its best. Conversely, the Xavier defense just struggled with Texas, and the Musketeers’ poor 3-point defense could burn them against an Illini team that attempts threes at a top 30 rate nationally. As for the Xavier offense, the Musketeers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation by percentage, and they should see plenty of success against an Illinois defense that is a whopping 311th in 3-point percentage defense on the season. Most importantly, both teams are above average in pace of play compared to the rest of this field, so let’s back the over before it continues to move.

Xavier vs Illinois prediction: Over 158.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 159.5.

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