Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/21/25

In the East region, the 7th seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels and 10th seeded Vanderbilt Commodores will face off in the first round. Saint Mary’s had a fantastic regular season, finishing 28-5 with a 17-1 WCC record. The Gaels fell to Gonzaga in the WCC title game, but were able to receive an at-large bid due to their impressive resume. As for Vanderbilt, they lost their first round game in the SEC tournament, but were ultimately able to earn an at-large bid behind their signature wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. The Gaels have some advantages in this game, so we will look to back them as small favorites on Friday.

The Gaels biggest edge in this contest comes on the glass, where they rank top 10 in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. This factor does not bode well for the smaller Commodores frontcourt, as they are outside the top 100 in rebound rate on both sides of the floor. The Gaels should also be able to play at their preferred slower pace in this contest. Per Synergy, Vanderbilt operates in transition in the 80th percentile, while Saint Mary’s completely cuts off this avenue (9th percentile in transition frequency allowed, 98th percentile in points per possession against). Games typically tend to slow down in a tournament setting, so backing the slower pace team that can make the other feel uncomfortable is an angle that piques my interest.

The one area of concern for the Gaels is the pressure defense of the Commodores. Coach Byington’s squad presses on 14% of possessions (85th percentile in frequency). The Gaels rank in just the 26th percentile in points per possession against the press, but they take care of the ball well enough to not give away possessions (39th nationally in turnover rate), so this factor may not end up being much of a problem after all. Saint Mary’s has been one of the more underrated teams in the nation all year long, and I believe they prove themselves once again on Friday afternoon.

Saint Mary’s vs Vanderbilt prediction: St. Mary’s -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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