UNCW Seahawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/20/25

In the nightcap on the first day of the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders will play the #14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks in Wichita. The Red Raiders are battling injuries to Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams, both of whom missed the Big 12 Tournament loss to Arizona, but they are expected to return for this game on Thursday night – though head coach Grant McCasland did not commit to the amount of playing time they will receive. On the other end, UNC Wilmington earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament by winning the CAA, a run that consisted of wins over Hampton, Charleston and Delaware. 

The Seahawks have played just 1 tournament team this season, and it was an 84-66 loss to Kansas in Lawrence way back in November – so we don’t really know what the ceiling is for this team. That being said, there are a couple key factors in this game that I feel should benefit UNC Wilmington and increase its chance of finishing inside the number. With both teams averaging about 65 possessions per game this season and around 64 possessions per game over their last 10, this game is likely to be played primarily in the half court – which makes the points with the underdog that much more valuable. The Red Raiders will likely utilize their sizable talent advantage to score at-will from the 3-point line, and they should have success around the rim when they get there. However, I expect the Seahawks to find some offense as well. They operate efficiently in the mid range, which is an area that Texas Tech is a bit soft defensively, and they excel at creating second chances via the offensive rebounding prowess of 7-footer Harlan Obioha and the rest of the front court. In fact, UNCW’s front court consists of 4 players that are top 500 in offensive rebounding rate out of 2,309 qualified Division 1 players (KenPom). Moreover, senior guard Donovan Newby has a knack for getting to the free throw line at a high rate, and will likely be hunting to get those easy points at the charity stripe – where he connects on nearly 89% of his attempts. 

Texas Tech is clearly the better and more talented team in this matchup and is very likely to advance to the second round. However, with slight uncertainty in the amount of playing time for McMillan and Williams, as well as a slower-than-average expected pace of play, I like UNC Wilmington to cover this number. 

UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech prediction: UNC Wilmington Seahawks +15.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +13.5.

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