UC San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/20/25

A popular upset pick in most bracket pools is going to be taking at least one #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed. This is a common upset that we’ve seen occur many times over the years, and I’m of the belief that this upset trend will continue this week in the South Region when the UC San Diego Tritons take on the Michigan Wolverines on Thursday. Just a few years removed from jumping up to the Division I level, UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, winning 30 games (most of which came in dominant fashion) en route to a Big West title and a shot at knocking off the Big Ten champions. It just so happens that the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset as short underdogs in this game. 

From a situational spot perspective, this Michigan team is coming off playing 3 hard-fought games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title last Sunday. Now, the Wolverines have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a UC San Diego team that is a very well-rounded group, and the numbers back it up. In fact, the Tritons are one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytic sites, such as KenPom, Barttorvik, etc. Part of why UC San Diego will be live in this game is that this is a pretty difficult team to prepare for, especially on a short turnaround. The Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense (58th in adjusted efficiency, 30th in 2-point percentage, 30th in effective field goal percentage). However, the biggest edge in this game for Eric Olen’s team is their ability to force a ton of turnovers (2nd nationally in turnovers forced), while also not turning the ball over themselves. This strength should especially come in handy against an extremely turnover-prone Wolverines offense (328th in turnover percentage) that could find themselves in big trouble on Thursday against an excellent UC San Diego defense that is elite at defending the paint (93rd percentile in rim defense efficiency). Michigan is also due for some massive close game regression after winning a ton of games by 5 points or fewer throughout Big Ten play. All things considered, I’ll take the Tritons to pull off the outright upset on the money line in a game that should go down to the wire.  

UC San Diego vs Michigan prediction: UC San Diego ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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