Robert Morris Colonials vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/21/25

The 15-seed Robert Morris Colonials may have a significantly shorter trip to Cleveland, Ohio ahead of their first-round game against the 2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide on Friday afternoon, but it’s perhaps the only advantage they have in this contest as 22.5-point underdogs. Playing in the Horizon League, Robert Morris finished atop the regular season standings and secured an 11-point win over Youngstown State in the Horizon League Championship game to punch their ticket to the Colonials’ first NCAA Tournament appearance in 10 years. Aside from an overtime scare against Oakland in the Semifinal, Robert Morris has faced little resistance, winning 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points over their last 10 games.

The problem for Robert Morris is obviously the strength of their schedule. The Colonials only played 2 teams that rank inside the top 150 teams in the nation, per KenPom, and they happen to be their last 2 games against Oakland and Youngstown State. The Crimson Tide rank 6 per KenPom and 5 per BartTorvik, and given the fact they play with the fastest tempo in the nation, Alabama should run up and down the court against Robert Morris. While I lean on Alabama covering the spread in this game, I’d much rather make a play on the game total and take the over. Alabama is leading the country in scoring at 91.1 ppg, while Robert Morris falls just inside the top 100, averaging 76.9 ppg. The Crimson Tide could easily stick 100 on the Colonials in this game and we just need the Colonials to do their part. Luckily, Robert Morris has surpassed their season scoring average in 6 of their last 9 games while averaging 80.4 ppg over that span. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, so the Colonials should have plenty of opportunities to score. Back the over in this round 1 matchup.

Robert Morris vs Alabama prediction: Over 165.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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