Oklahoma Sooners vs Connecticut Huskies Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/21/25

The #8 vs #9 matchup in the West Region is awesome. The reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies will meet the Oklahoma Sooners in Raleigh on Friday night, with the winner advancing to a potential matchup with #1 Florida on Sunday. Both teams are playing pretty well on the offensive end of late, mutually ranking in the top 12 of Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since February 22nd. Similarly, neither team has been very good defensively. UConn and Oklahoma rank 99th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month, and neither team is disciplined enough to defend without fouling. In fact, the Huskies are 333rd in free throw rate allowed, while the Sooners are 254th. However, the Sooners are active in the passing lines, which is a staple of Porter Moser’s defense dating back to his days at Loyola.

This game will be a pace war, as Oklahoma wants to run while UConn is content walking the ball up the court and running their sets. It’s difficult to project games with such a dichotomy in tempo, but I like the Sooners to keep this game inside the number. Oklahoma has been excellent in the underdog role this season, covering 12 of 18 games when catching points in a much more difficult conference than this season’s Big East. They come into this tournament on a hot streak against the number as well, covering 7 of their last 10 games. UConn cannot say the same. The Huskies have been up-and-down against the number leading into the tournament, and they haven’t fared well in the favorite role. 

Jeremiah Fears has blossomed into quite the playmaker, as the freshman guard loves to get downhill and finish at the rim or dish to a shooter. He will likely be able to get what he wants against a UConn defense that is in the 3rd percentile against shots off the dribble according to Hoop-Explorer. Outside of him, the Sooners are loaded with seniors and have 3 players on the wings that shoot at least 39% from the perimeter on at least 90 attempts. Forward Sam Godwin, who is the team’s best rebounder and shot-blocker, has missed Oklahoma’s last 3-4 games with an injury, but I think there’s reason to believe he will return for this game. Coach Moser said that Godwin is still day-to-day, but has been progressing nicely in his rehab and that he’s doing more every day. Given the fact that this is the NCAA Tournament, I think Godwin gives it a go even if he’s not fully 100%. His presence is crucial for the Sooners down low, even if he’s only 80-90%. 

Maybe it’s because I have been burned by UConn plenty of times this season, but I just don’t trust this team laying more than 2 possessions against an Oklahoma squad that can score in bunches, turn teams over and get to the free throw line for easy points. These teams are fairly even in my evaluation, and I even have Oklahoma as a small favorite in this matchup based on their adjusted numbers over the last month or so, so I like the Sooners to cover and maybe even win outright. Due to UConn’s recent postseason pedigree, my best bet is Oklahoma with the points — but I likely will sprinkle on the money line, as well.

Oklahoma vs UConn prediction: Oklahoma +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

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