North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tuesday, 03/18/25

As we head to Dayton for the First Four on Tuesday, we are here with a North Carolina Tar Heels vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction. There is no shortage of controversy in this game, mostly surrounding the worthiness of the Tar Heels to even be here. Their AD chairs the selection committee, and their 1-12 record against quad 1 opponents raises plenty of eyebrows. But let’s look at that closer. Most of those losses were in the early part of the season against the very elite teams. They lost twice to Alabama (by 2 and by 5), lost by 3 at Kansas, lost to Auburn, lost to Michigan State by 3, and to Florida by 6. Oh, and they got beat by Duke 3 times. They also lost at Louisville and at Clemson. That is 8 losses to teams that aren’t just quad 1, but who are #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and several nasty road spots. In other words, nearly everyone in the country would lose those games too, so maybe let’s settle down a bit. The question here is what happens against San Diego State. My bet is that this game stays close, so I am taking the points with the Aztecs.

This is a clash of styles. UNC plays fast; SD St plays slow. Carolina is an offensive machine, but they do not shoot or make many 3s; they get downhill and attack the rim. But San Diego State is one of the nation’s elite interior defenses, and they protect the rim as well as anyone. Neither team turns the ball over much. We are talking about a strength-on-strength game here, and those usually stay close. The early betting market is coming in hard on the Tar Heel side, and the spread has already pushed out a point or so. Carolina is also the trendy pick in early brackets for the traditional First Four team who makes it to the Sweet 16. Maybe they do it, but let’s not overlook the Aztecs. This is a team that beat Houston, after all, and their defense can keep them in any game. If you are giving me a couple of baskets of breathing room with a great defensive team, I’ll take it. Give me San Diego State +4.5.

North Carolina vs San Diego State prediction: San Diego State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ UNC vs SDSU predictions.