North Carolina Tar Heels vs Ole Miss Rebels Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/21/25

The #11 Tar Heels came alive in the First Four on Tuesday in a 95-68 win over San Diego State. To put it lightly, they absolutely destroyed SDSU, scoring 1.36 points per possession — including 14-for-24 from the 3-point line. The Tar Heels also knocked down 21 of their 24 free-throws and grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. On the other end, UNC forced San Diego State into some really tough shots. Due to the Heels pulling away early, the Aztecs seemed to think they needed to unload from the perimeter to remain competitive. That didn’t work, as SDSU made just 8 of its 27 attempts beyond the arc. 

The Tar Heels will meet the Ole Miss Rebels on Friday, and I like this matchup for the Heels. Ole Miss is very streaky offensively and doesn’t create second-chance opportunities at an elite rate. In fact, the Rebels are 313th in offensive rebounding rate this season, due in large part to a lack of elite size. San Diego State showed us how costly one-and-done possessions can be against this UNC squad, as the Tar Heels gobble up defensive rebounds at a top-25 rate and are able to utilize their stable of veteran guards to push the ball up the floor in transition at a ferocious pace. On the other end of the floor, North Carolina has surged defensively; the Heels are top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 22. When you add that to a 44% 3-point percentage in that span, you can understand why they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. 

The Rebels have played by far the better level of competition this season, but is there a chance they are gassed following a tenuous SEC schedule? I think there’s merit to that idea. While UNC didn’t have many marquee wins this year, the talent level is there and it is playing well on both ends of the floor. North Carolina is my pick to advance to the second round.

North Carolina vs Ole Miss prediction: North Carolina ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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