Norfolk State Spartans vs Florida Gators Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/21/25

The #1 Florida Gators earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a sterling 30-4 record that consisted of wins over Tennessee (twice), Alabama (twice), Auburn, Missouri and Texas A&M while lacking any bad losses. The Gators have great balance, leading the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency with a top 10 mark on the defensive side. They have plenty of Division 1 experience in the back court with 3 senior guards, including Final Four experience with Alijah Martin – who was part of FAU’s Cinderella run a couple years back. Furthermore, the Gators also have unique size with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten and Thomas Haugh – 2 of which can step outside the arc and knock down 3s, while the other 2 protect the rim and grab offensive rebounds at an elite rate. 

The MEAC winners in #16 Norfolk State don’t have any marquee wins, but the Spartans played Tennessee, Baylor, Stanford and Grand Canyon this year. They lost those games by an average of about 16 points per game, but that was much earlier in the season and right before conference play for most of those power conference programs. Norfolk doesn’t possess many characteristics that I look for in an upset pick. The Spartans struggle to take care of the ball (258th turnover rate), and they don’t shoot well from the perimeter (31.3% 3-point%). Moreover, their defense is suspect, as KenPom has it 217th in the country.

There’s too much size and firepower on Florida’s roster for me to get cute on this game. Give me the Gators to win and cover convincingly. 

Norfolk State vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators -28.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -29.5.

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