New Mexico Lobos vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 03/23/25
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New Mexico vs Michigan State Pickswise Expert Predictions
The #10 New Mexico Lobos looked very good in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. In fact, they never trailed Marquette by more than 3 at any point of the game, scoring 1.1 points per possession. Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph led the way with 40 combined points, while Tru Washington and CJ Noland added another 23 combined. With the win, the Lobos earned a date with the #2 Michigan State Spartans on Sunday. The Spartans took care of business against Bryant, but the Bulldogs hung around for a while before the Spartans pulled away late.
This New Mexico squad has plenty of size and experience to hang with Michigan State, as shown by regular season wins over UCLA and USC at neutral sites. The Lobos have been excellent defensively of late, ranking top 20 in adjusted efficiency per Bart Torvik and in the 98th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). They excel at getting into the passing lanes and forcing turnovers, boasting a top 25 forced turnover rate in the last month. Moreover, they are one of the nation’s best at limiting offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities, which is critical for this matchup with Michigan State – who is very good on the offensive boards. For reference, New Mexico is 19th in opposing offensive rebounding rate this season, with top 40 marks in opposing second-chance opportunities and conversion percentage (Haslametrics).
Michigan State is considered the better team in this matchup, but I worry about the inexperience in the Spartan back court with Jeremy Fears and Jase Richardson against New Mexico’s long perimeter defenders. I wouldn’t be surprised to see ample turnovers against this opportunistic defense. That in combination with an unreliable perimeter offense has me bearish on Sparty in this specific matchup, so I am taking the points with New Mexico.
New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction: New Mexico +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.
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