Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers vs American Eagles Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/19/25

In a First Four showdown, Mount St. Mary’s and American University battle for the right to face the Duke Blue Devils in the Round of 64. Both teams enter Dayton with different strengths, but for one side they must overcome a major weakness. American quietly controlled the Patriot League standings for much of the season, benefitting from an experienced roster packed with seniors and super-seniors who have built strong chemistry. While the Eagles don’t specialize in creating havoc defensively, they do force giveaways at the highest rate in their league, winning the turnover battle in 10 of their last 11 games. That statistic is just within the Patriot League, so the Mountaineers are still in luck. American doesn’t have an elite defense by any means; they are actually just 200th in steals. MSM should control the boards as well, ranking 52nd in rebounds compared to American’s 339th. The Eagles have taken the last four games from MSM, it’s revenge time for the Mountaineers.

Mount St. Mary’s has been a force against the spread this year. They’ve thrived as underdogs (14-5 ATS), excelled in non-conference play (7-3 ATS), and remained consistent on the road (11-6 ATS). Even on short rest, they’ve proven resilient. Meanwhile, American has been far less reliable in these situations, hovering around .500 ATS in most betting trends. While American has the edge in taking care of the ball, the trends suggest Mount St. Mary’s will keep this close and win outright. It is March though, and we’ve seen crazy things happen, I’ll take the points just in case.

Mount Saint Mary’s vs American prediction: Mount Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

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