McNeese State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/22/25

McNeese State earned its first NCAA Tournament victory on Saturday with a 69-67 win over Clemson, but it wasn’t that close for a majority of the game. While Clemson went on a late run, out-scoring the Cowboys by 16 in the final 10 minutes, McNeese was up 40-16 at one point early in the 2nd half. Quadir Copeland, McNeese’s 6’6” point guard, put up 16 points with 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Brandon Murray added 21 points, 3 assists and 3 steals off the bench. 

Purdue was similarly successful against High Point on Thursday. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn combined for 41 points to lead the Boilermakers to a 12-point win and cover, as Smith feasted in the mid-range and off the bounce despite a poor shooting percentage. However, outside of Camden Heide’s 11 points off the bench, the Boilermakers didn’t get much from their supporting cast, which may be a problem in their Round of 32 matchup against the Cowboys. 

McNeese doesn’t have much size in the post, but the Cowboys have size in the back court with Copeland. His length and physicality figures to disrupt Smith, as he stands about a half a foot taller than Smith. Utilizing those physical advantages, Copeland makes it very difficult for McNeese’s opponents to operate in the mid-range. As a team, the Cowboys are top 3 nationally in mid-range rate allowed, while boasting a top 10 mark in opposing mid-range shooting percentage. On the other end of the floor, Purdue has struggled mightily to defend inside the arc. For reference, the Boilermakers are outside the top 353 in opposing 2-point shooting percentage, and they give up a 3-point shot on nearly 43% of opposing possessions. Simply put, it’s hard to trust Purdue to win by margin with these defensive issues given my expectation that Copeland will be able to limit Smith’s scoring output.

McNeese vs Purdue prediction: McNeese State +5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4. 

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