High Point Panthers vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/20/25

One of my favorite games on Thursday’s Round of 64 slate comes in the Midwest Region between the High Point Panthers and Purdue Boilermakers in what should be one of the best showcases for offense in the opening round. Champions of the Big South, High Point boasts one of the deepest mid-major rosters in the nation, including a couple of Power 4 conference transfers littered across the roster that make up one of the best bench units in the country. The Panthers offense is elite (top 25 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom & Barttorvik) and is they can score both on the break and in a halfcourt setting, which is key against a Purdue team that doesn’t like to push the pace all that much, but can still be turnover prone when it has the ball. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Panthers were able to get to 75 points against a Purdue defense that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire (68th in adjusted efficiency, 293rd in effective field goal percentage defense).

On the other side of the ball, I don’t suspect High Point’s defense to have many answers for the Boilermakers offense (8th in adjusted efficiency). Purdue floor general Braden Smith and power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn — one of the best scoring duos in the nation — should dominate High Point’s drop coverage defense, as the Panthers currently sit at 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. In the same vein, Purdue is shockingly dead last in the country in two-point defense (364th) since January 1, a shocking development for a program of its stature. Simply put, the offensive makeup of both of these teams leads me to believe that both sides should be able to generate consistent offense against these underwhelming defenses. While neither team plays at an extremely fast pace, both offenses are among the most efficient in the nation for a reason. Let’s back the over in a game that should be close throughout, and likely won’t feature much defense to speak of.

High Point vs Purdue prediction: Over 153 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 154.

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