Georgia Bulldogs vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/20/25

One of the most interesting matchups of the first round tips off on Thursday evening between #8 Gonzaga and #9 Georgia in Wichita. The battle of the Bulldogs is interesting because Gonzaga is considered to be very underseeded, yet has just 2 top 40 wins per KenPom’s rankings. In fact, KenPom’s same metrics consider Gonzaga to be the 9th-best team in the country. On the other end, we will get to see just how good the depth of the SEC is. Georgia was 8-10 in SEC play, but the ‘Dawgs beat St. John’s, Kentucky and Florida this season – in addition to 4 other wins over tournament teams – and didn’t lose to any team outside the current KenPom top 40.

While I agree Gonzaga is underseeded, I also feel this line is too high. Georgia doesn’t have the best results away from home, but the ‘Dawgs have elite size that can disrupt the ‘Zags in the paint and on the perimeter. Georgia utilizes that size to grab offensive rebounds on about 36% of its misses (16th in offensive rebounding%) and block shots at a top 12 rate nationally. On the perimeter, Silas Demary and Blue Cain are very rangy and get into the passing lanes at a high rate. In all, this Georgia team is bigger and more physical than a vast majority of the teams Gonzaga played this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Graham Ike take time to adjust to the size and length with which the Georgia front court plays.

The Zags have good numbers when it comes to their opposing offensive rebounding rate on the season as a whole. However, when you peel back the layers a little bit, you will find that Baylor, West Virginia, Kentucky and UCLA all grabbed at least 12 offensive rebounds against Gonzaga, with Baylor being the only one of the bunch that lost to the ‘Zags. That doesn’t even include Saint Mary’s, who averaged 14.7 offensive rebounds per game in 3 contests with Gonzaga – 2 of which the Gaels won. Georgia should be able to replicate that success on the offensive glass, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the ‘Dawgs at the free throw line a good bit because of their hustle and physicality around the paint. Give me Georgia to keep this one close.

Georgia vs Gonzaga prediction: Georgia Bulldogs +6.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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