Florida Gators vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Saturday, 04/05/25

The stage is set for the Final Four in San Antonio, and while this has been a chalky NCAA Tournament, we are set up for a pair of incredible games on Saturday. You could actually argue this is a historically good year, as all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time since 2008, which was the year Kansas edged past Derrick Rose, John Calipari and the Memphis Tigers thanks to a game-tying shot by Mario Chalmers that forced overtime – where the Jayhawks eventually prevailed. Moreover, all of the #1 seeds in this tournament are among the 10 highest-rated teams in KenPom’s database, which goes back nearly 30 years. 

The Final Four kicks off with an SEC showdown, which is historic in its own right. This is the 5th time that 2 SEC teams have made the Final Four, but it’s the first time the 2 SEC teams will actually play each other. The top overall seed in Auburn steam-rolled its way here with double-digit wins over Creighton and Michigan, as well as a win and cover over Michigan State in the Elite 8. However, Johni Broome seemingly picked up 2 injuries simultaneously, one to his knee and one to his elbow. He intends to play in this game, but I question how effective he will be. 

On the other side, you could say Florida is lucky to be here. The Gators needed late-game heroics against UConn and Texas Tech, but they took care of business against a talented, albeit distracted Maryland team in the Sweet 16. I would argue Florida hasn’t played to its ceiling yet in the NCAA Tournament, which could be a scary proposition for Auburn, especially because the Gators beat the Tigers at the Jungle despite not having Alijah Martin in that game. 

It’s hard to know exactly how effective Broome will be, but I don’t expect him to be anywhere near 100%. Given the depth of Florida’s frontcourt, the Gators will likely make it difficult for an ailing Broome to have any type of consistency as a scorer, and I question his ability to rebound in traffic with any sort of force due to his hyperextended elbow. Broome being less than 100% will put a lot of pressure on Auburn’s backcourt to keep up with the flamethrower that is Walter Clayton Jr., who becomes the most influential player in this game given Broome’s injury. We’ve seen Clayton lead this Florida team to victory multiple times in this tournament alone, but he’s done it throughout the season – including in Florida’s win over Auburn earlier this year when he scored 19 points on 4/8 from 3, in addition to 9 assists. 

While Broome is on the floor, look for Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlongten to take turns opposing him in the paint. That trio of post players also has the strength to oppose Dylan Cardwell, who I expect to see increased minutes on Saturday. Thomas Haugh, who has risen to stardom in this tournament, offers versatility as a perimeter and post player that can defend other versatile players like Chaney Johnson and Chad Baker-Mazara. Meanwhile, Will Richard is a rangy perimeter defender that can contest the shots of CBM, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones (when he plays off the ball). 

All things considered, I believe Florida matches up well with this Auburn team, especially because of Todd Golden. Golden previously worked under Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl, and I feel Golden will use that to his advantage schematically like he did earlier this season. I also expect Alijah Martin’s leadership and poise to be a key factor in this game alongside Clayton’s shot-making, being that Martin has Final Four experience already. Give me the Gators to win and advance to the title game on Monday.

Auburn vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators ML (-146) at the time of publishing. Playable to -160.

Now you can bet any of our Auburn vs Florida predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $200 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

Florida loves to get out and run in transition. The Gators are top 60 nationally in adjusted tempo, including top 45 in average possession length (KenPom). Moreover, they are elite in their ability to gobble up offensive rebounds – which Auburn struggles to limit at times – and they shoot and make 3s at a top 75 rate. All of these traits are conducive for an Over. On the other side, Auburn doesn’t run with nearly as much pace as Florida. The Tigers usually want to give Johni Broome a touch on a vast majority of possessions, which tends to slow games down. However, given the expectation that he is less than 100% for this game, Auburn’s offense is likely to be carried more by its backcourt against the Gators – which I feel helps the case for an Over. The Tigers have very capable guards that can score from anywhere on the floor, as 4 of Auburn’s rotational players make at least 37% of their 3s on at least 148 attempts. 

Florida has a solid perimeter defense. In fact, both of these teams are currently top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. However, the offenses are even better, both boasting top 3 marks nationally. For what it’s worth, the first meeting between these teams played to 74 possessions, and there were 171 total points scored despite Auburn shooting less than 50% from inside the arc and just 31.8% beyond it. Look for the Tigers to shoot more than 22 perimeter shots in this game, leading to either 3 points when they go in or transition opportunities for Florida when they miss. Given the efficiency with which these offenses play, combined with the expected pace of this game, the Over is the only way I could look for this historic Final Four matchup. 

Auburn vs Florida prediction: Over 159.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 161.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Auburn vs Florida predictions.