Creighton Bluejays vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/20/25

The first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament begins in earnest on Thursday with a matchup between the Creighton Bluejays and Louisville Cardinals. From a situational spot perspective, this is a tough draw for Creighton, who will have to travel to Lexington, Kentucky to play what is essentially a true road game against a Louisville team that was pretty clearly underseeded by the selection committee. The Cardinals have advantages on both sides of the ball in this matchup, particularly when it comes to their offense against the unique style of drop coverage Creighton employs with Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint. With veteran guards Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. leading the way in the backcourt, Louisville has the shotmaking to take advantage of the Kalk drop, which allows for clean midrange looks from around 15 feet. If the Cardinals do see success at attacking the drop coverage, the passing lanes should open up and there will be shooters open on the perimeter.

On the other side of the ball, Creighton is a solid offense, but this is decidedly not the same team as a year ago in terms of its depth of scoring. The Bluejays are extremely reliant on senior point guard Steven Ashworth to run the show and set up his teammates, in addition to their need for his offense (16.3 points per game). While Ashworth is a very good player, he has exhibited the tendency to be a bit loose with the ball when pressured consistently by high-level competition, which is exactly what I believe Louisville will do throughout this game. Additionally, the Cardinals are top-25 nationally in post-up defense, which obviously looms large when going up against a player of Kalkbrenner’s caliber. Ultimately, I’ll side with the Cardinals to get the job done and advance to the Round of 32.

Creighton vs Louisville prediction: Louisville ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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