Colorado State Rams vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Tomorrow, 03/21/25

The second day of the NCAA Tournament first round is one that doesn’t necessarily the same caliber of matchups on paper as Thursday’s slate. However, one of the best games on the Friday card features a couple of proud and storied mid-major programs as the #12 seed Colorado State Rams will take on the #5 seed Memphis Tigers in the West Region. The Rams are certainly one of the hottest teams in college basketball, having won 10 straight contests and 11 out of their last 12 games overall. In fact, Colorado State’s last defeat came all the way back on February 11 to Utah State, a game they have since avenged twice over the past couple of weeks. The fact of the matter is that Colorado State is playing like a top 10 caliber team (ranked 8th at Barttorvik since February 15), while Memphis is ranked all the way down at 77th in that same span and looks like a team that is heading in the wrong direction heading into the NCAA Tournament. 

Leading the way for Colorado State is veteran guard Nique Clifford, who is in the midst of one of the best scoring runs of any player in the nation. It’s hard to see the Memphis defense (66th in adjusted efficiency over the past month) containing the dynamic guard, who is coming off a massive 3-game stretch in the Mountain West tournament. The Tigers also struggle mightily at defending the 3-point line (246th in 3-point defense since per Barttorvik), and a defense that is susceptible to allowing open three-pointers isn’t exactly a recipe for success against a Colorado State team that is shooting the ball extremely well (1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage since Feb. 1) and is shooting 47% from beyond the arc over this 10-game winning streak.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense isn’t anything to write home about, but Memphis’ offense has real problems of its own. Superstar guard PJ Haggerty is a walking bucket and he should undoubtedly cause problems in this game, but the Tigers are going to be without senior guard Tyrese Hunter, who is an integral part of this backcourt on both sides of the ball. Without their veteran leader, this mistake-prone Memphis team (304th in turnover percentage) could be in some trouble against a Colorado State group that is playing solid, fundamental defense and rebounding the ball really well of late (15th in defensive rebound percentage since Feb. 1). Ultimately, I’m content to ride with the hotter team and a great coach in Niko Medved to pick up the victory on Thursday.

Colorado State vs Memphis prediction: Colorado State ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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