March Madness Picks 2026

Teams that score and play with tempo are fun to watch. They also get a lot of love from the betting market. That’s Prairie View A&M in this situation. The Panthers also have been on a sick heater against the spread — 10 straight covers and an incredible march through the SWAC to land PVAM in the First Four. Where were the Panthers 2 weeks ago? Sitting at 11-17 staring down the barrel of a bottom-tier seed in the conference tournament before they did the unthinkable.

That narrative will curry a lot of market favor. The market is investing in the story as much as the allure of a fast-paced offensive team that can run it up and down the floor. But this isn’t the SWAC; this is the Big Dance, and tempo teams don’t exactly fare well. Enter Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks quietly orchestrated their own uncanny run to the First Four on the heels of solid defense that carried them through the Patriot League Tournament. Unlike the Panthers, the Hawks play slow and let the game come to them. This is exactly the sort of side that A&M doesn’t want to see in a play-in game to make the main bracket. But here we are. The Mountain Hawks will turn this into a grind and a knuckle-dragging rock fight that will throw the Panthers out of rhythm. This is the perfect spot to back Lehigh. Let’s lay the points.

Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh prediction: Lehigh -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Miami Ohio couldn’t have asked for a better regular season, finishing a perfect 31-0 while leading the MAC in scoring. However, that momentum came to a halt after a quarterfinal exit against UMass in the MAC Tournament. Now the RedHawks will look to put that behind them and prove their undefeated regular season wasn’t a fluke as they prepare to face SMU in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs didn’t close out the season the way they had hoped, dropping 5 of their last 6 games — which includes an opening-round loss in the ACC Tournament to Louisville 62-58. The Mustangs also struggled away from home, going just 5-10 on the road and at neutral sites this season. That said, both teams bring high-powered offenses into this matchup. Miami Ohio averaged 90.7 points per game in conference play and SMU put up 84.2 in the ACC. 

Miami Ohio does a great job moving the ball and creating open looks, but the level of competition is a concern, as they didn’t face a Quad 1 opponent this season. SMU also plays at a fast pace and can score in bunches while also bringing a physical presence inside. That interior strength could be a major factor in this matchup, especially after Miami Ohio was dominated in the paint by UMass (54-30) and out-rebounded 41 to 24 in their tournament loss. Even with SMU’s advantage inside, its struggles away from home and its defensive issues can’t be ignored. With Dayton just about an hour from Miami Ohio’s campus, the RedHawks should have plenty of fan support in this matchup. This game sets up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring battle, with SMU looking to control the paint. However, I expect the RedHawks to generate open looks from the perimeter and knock down shots from deep, which should allow them to keep this game close. 

Miami Ohio vs SMU prediction: Miami Ohio +7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

#9 seed TCU will open the NCAA Tournament against the #8 seed Ohio State in what should be an exciting matchup. The Horned Frogs closed the season strong on both ends of the floor, winning six of their last seven games. Ohio State has also been playing well, winning four of its last five, including a near upset of Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams bring plenty of talent, but the edge goes to Ohio State – and here’s why. 

Bruce Thornton is one of the top guards in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He’s a tough matchup for any defense, and he’s not alone. The Buckeyes also feature John Mobley Jr. (15.7 PPG), Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), and 7-foot center Christoph Tilly, who adds 11 points per game. The Horned Frogs have plenty of depth of their own, with four players averaging double digits, and they thrive on forcing turnovers with their defensive pressure. However, Ohio State holds a clear edge in efficiency. The Buckeyes are shooting  49.3% from the floor compared to TCU’s 44.8%, and they’re also more reliable at the free-throw line, hitting 77.5% compared to the Horned Frogs 70.8%, which could be critical late in the game. Defensively, both teams are strong with the Buckeyes holding opponents to 72.8 points per game compared to the Horned Frogs 72.1. While Thornton hasn’t played in an NCAA Tournament game, he has the playmaking ability and discipline to handle the pressure. The Buckeyes have strong perimeter defense and should be able to shut down their 3-point shooting, and also limit TCU’s success in the paint, with Christoph Tilly and Devin Royal protecting the interior and closing off driving lanes. Look for Ohio State to knock down critical free throws late and cover the small spread before advancing to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.  

TCU vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Blue Devils are a commodity. The Saints? Not so much. Duke is a top seed in the bracket and one of the game’s titans. Siena? They snuck into March Madness by taking down Merrimack in the MAAC Championship to earn a #16 seed. Point out where Duke is on the map, and most fingers will land in Durham, North Carolina. Siena? Some may think that they are some small college from the West Coast. They are actually from Poughkeepsie, New York.

The point that I am trying to make is that Duke almost certainly commands a premium to back them here and as a result, they are undoubtedly overvalued. Yes, the Blue Devils will win and advance. But by this margin? That’s a mystery. Let’s not forget who the Saints are. A team looking to do the unthinkable, the biggest game in their university’s history. This is a scenario where even if Duke goes up big, the Saints are going to empty the tanks which makes them a tough fade at this price. Gerry McNamara has turned this program around in a short period of time and in case any forget who Siena’s skipper is, he was the man that led Syracuse on a crazy run 20 years ago in this very tournament.  We are not saying an upset is on the horizon, but against a motivated underdog, an overlay is certainly likely.

Siena vs Duke prediction: Siena +28 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tom Izzo and Sparty go together with March Madness like peanut butter and jelly. You will hear the rhetoric and hyperbole all tournament long: Michigan State is a Final Four contender because of their pedigree and their coaching. That’s true, but as is the case with teams like the Spartans, you pay to play when you back them. That is assuredly the case here.

Michigan State is a good team. North Dakota State? They won the Summit League. That’s not going to move the needle. Situationally speaking, this is not a good look for the Bison to win. We are talking about a top-25 scoring offense against a top-25 scoring defense. In March, the latter means more. But the question isn’t whether the Spartans are on upset alert or not, it’s whether they can cover. That’s a more trying debate. Even if Sparty rolls NDSU, there is backdoor potential at the minimum laying this number. MSU can be cruising late and a few baskets in the final frames can take a 20-plus point lead to where the Bison sneak in under the number. Bottom line, don’t lay this kind of wood. You are paying to do so and the price almost certainly is too expensive.

North Dakota State vs Michigan State prediction: North Dakota State +16.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more intriguing first round matchups on Thursday features the VCU Rams vs the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Rams rolled through the A-10 tournament, and they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak. The Tar Heels come into the tournament vulnerable, with star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the year. If you are shopping for an upset for your bracket, this would be a good spot to look. For bettors, there is still value here too, and I look for VCU to keep this game close at +2.5.

The Heels obviously still have lots of talent without Wilson, no doubt about that. Seth Trimble especially will step up and carry the load. But there is more here. In particular, this is a dangerous matchup for Carolina. VCU is an elite 3-point shooting team, and when they aren’t shooting threes, they are good at getting themselves to the foul line. While UNC does not foul a lot, they do struggle to defend the arc. If there is one tried and true formula for a first round upset, that is it—the ability for underdogs to make 3s. It is also worth noting that VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 and nearly upended NC State, so they can go toe to toe with ACC squads. And those games were in November; the Rams have only improved since then. I like VCU in this spot.

VCU vs North Carolina prediction: VCU +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the harder games on the slate is Thursday evening’s South regional matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies and the St. Mary’s Gaels. The game will be played in Oklahoma City, which is a definite advantage for the Aggies, but the matchup itself favors the Gaels. We also have a serious conflict of styles, as the Aggies are a go-fast team, while St. Mary’s has consistently been among the most deliberate teams in the nation for several years now. Whoever controls the pace probably controls this game. Typically, the slow team grinds down the game and frustrates the fast team, and that is what I am looking for here. Give me St. Mary’s -3.

Bucky Ball worked for a little while in College Station, but as the Aggies slumped down the stretch, it was an indication that teams were figuring out how to counter their style of play. The problem for the Aggies in this matchup is that the things they do well are also things that St. Mary’s is good at stopping. The Aggies want to take a ton of 3s; the Gaels are top 40 in the country at defending the arc. The Aggies want to go fast, but the Gaels control the pace. The Aggies attack the rim, but the Gaels protect the rim at an elite level. They also clean up as many rebounds as anyone in the country. I think this is a favorable spot for St. Mary’s, and I think the slumping Aggies are in trouble here. It is hard to take a slow-paced team to win by much of a margin though.

Texas A&M vs St. Mary’s prediction: St. Mary’s -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Idaho Vandals and the Houston Cougars will face off on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game is a late tip off in Oklahoma City following the Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M game. I do not expect this one to be a very close one as Houston should be able to handle Idaho with not many issues. The Vandals finished the regular season just 17-14 but went on a four-game winning streak to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky has not fared well in the big dance as they are just 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010. I expect Houston to add to that bad record and cover the spread here.

Houston -23.5 is my best bet of the game because I do not see Idaho having any success against Houston’s high-level defense. The Cougars have an elite defense every year under Kelvin Sampson, and this year is no different. According to KenPom, Houston’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, #17 in effective field goal percentage and #10 in two-point percentage. The Vandals offense is ranked just #176 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect them to struggle to score. They shoot a bunch of threes but only shoot 34.5 percentage from beyond the arc and will likely not be able to score much inside here. Take Houston to cover.

Idaho vs Houston prediction: Houston -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -25.