March Madness Best Bets

After a long and grueling college basketball season, all roads have finally led to the Final Four in San Antonio, Texas. Not only have all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, but we’ll get to see the top 2 teams per KenPom square off on Saturday, when the Houston Cougars will take on the Duke Blue Devils in the nightcap at the Alamodome. The winner will advance to the National Championship game game on Monday to play the winner of Florida vs. Auburn on the other side of the bracket.  

Both teams took different paths to get here, but the end result is ultimately the same. Duke absolutely rolled through all of its opponents in the East Region – Mt. St Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama – thanks in large part to complete performances on both ends of the floor. This is a team that has been able to win in different ways all season long, and the Blue Devils certainly look like the best team in the country at the moment. As for the Cougars, Kelvin Sampson’s rough and rugged team showed that it is well-equipped to handle whatever challenges are thrown its way, as Houston survived back-to-back stern tests against Gonzaga and Purdue — winning both games by a combined 7 points — before demolishing an excellent Tennessee team last Sunday to advance to the Final Four. And while Duke is the team garnering all of the national headlines, I’m of the opinion that Houston is very live in this game, giving the underdog some real value with the points. 

When factoring in data from the entire season, I can’t get anywhere near this number with Duke. In fact, my projection would be closer to a pick ’em line when looking at the totality of the season for both teams. Given that we have to take what we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament into account, the Blue Devils should certainly be favored. With that said, Houston catching more than one possession is a bit much. especially since this profiles as a game that will have fewer possessions than what we’ll see in the other Final Four matchup. After all, the total for this game is currently listed in the mid-130s, which puts a premium on every point we can get with an underdog in this matchup. 

This game presents us with a fascinating clash of styles, and the winner will likely be the team that is able to impose its will on the game stylistically. Duke is elite in all areas, but the Blue Devils’ strengths on defense — defending in transition and at the rim — don’t align with what Houston wants to do offensively, which could be an edge for the Cougars here. Houston loves midrange jumpers, and the Cougar bigs do a stellar job of crashing the offensive glass and kicking the ball out for open threes. When they do get those attempts from deep, the Cougars shoot the ball at a very high percentage (39.7% as a team, good for 2nd in the nation). We just saw the likes of Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan make jumpers against a tremendous Tennessee defense, so that formula is certainly replicable against a Duke team that is more than happy to let a team beat it with jumpers. 

On the other side of the ball, Houston is probably the toughest opponent for a team like Duke to deal with, especially since Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils are going to be seeing this type of aggressive, physical, swarming team defense for the first time all season. The Cougars have the innate ability to shape any contest into the ideal game they want to play, and given that they are playing as well as any team remaining in this tournament, it’s hard to ignore taking the points with the top rated defense in the country. Houston’s veteran know-how, physicality and dominance on the glass should end up being the difference against a Duke team that while excellent, is certainly not invincible against an opponent of this caliber. All things considered, I have to take the points in a game that should come down to the wire. 

Houston vs Duke prediction: Houston +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5

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