NBA Picks

The injury riddled Nuggets welcome the Heat as they aim to win a 4th game in a row. Who comes out on top? Find out in our Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets prediction.

Miami’s performances in the clutch have been questionable in the past 2 games, as it fell both to the Suns and Kings by 3 points and 1 point, respectively, in those games. After 7 games played Miami has a losing record, their offensive production is once again a concern as they’re just 24th in effective field-goal percentage. Having to turn things around against the Nuggets is far from ideal, the Heat have been dominated over the last 10 meetings — winning just once. On the road at Ball Arena Miami has won just once in 7 attempts.

There is just no stopping Nikola Jokic, who has taken it upon himself to keep the Nuggets afloat as they miss their two key players Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Denver has won 3 in a row; it just took down the best team in the West, Oklahoma City, 124-122. Russell Westbrook came up big in that game with 29 points, but it’s hard to expect Denver to rely on an inconsistent shooter on a permanent basis. The Nuggets have had serious issues covering the spread; they are just 3-5 ATS in 8 games this season. Denver might have had the upper hand in recent meetings, but the injury situation has to catch up at some point. Miami needs a response after those 2 close losses against Sacramento and Phoenix. I’ll be going with a motivated Heat team to cover.

Heat vs Nuggets prediction: Miami +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Two teams struggling with injuries collide tonight in L.A., as the Lakers welcome the 76ers. Who do I like in this matchup? Find out in my Philadelphia 76ers vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction.

Paul George’s homecoming didn’t go to plan; his 76ers fell to the Clippers 110-98. More importantly, though, they also lost Tyrese Maxey to a hamstring injury and he will not be available for tonight’s game. That means the Sixers are once again without 2 of their 3 superstars, as Joel Embiid serves another game of his 3-game suspension. George will be asked to carry the offense. Is he capable of scorning 40+?

L.A. could also be shorthanded; Anthony Davis is a game-time decision with plantar fasciitis in his foot. He sat out the Memphis game and the Lakers didn’t stand a chance, losing 131-114. The defense has had major issues during the 5-game road trip they were just on, allowing 125+ points in 3 of the last 4 games. Against a shorthanded 76ers team, that number should go down a bit. However, with just 1 win in 5 games the Lakers are looking for answers. After opening at 233.5, the total line has dropped to 221.5 after all the injuries. Still, I cannot trust this Lakers defense; they could not get stops even if their lives depended on it. Philadelphia is 4-1 on the O/U in its last 5 road games, while the Lakers are 5-2 in their last 7 overall. I’ll go with the points.

76ers vs Lakers prediction: Over 220 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Indiana Pacers have so far struggled to replicate last seasons form and that can be largely attributed to the play of star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He has seen his numbers drop off in points and assists per game and across all shooting percentages compared to 2023-24. Haliburton also has the team playing at a slower than expected pace, as it currently ranks 13th in that category — compared to being 2nd in pace last season. The Pacers will be taking on a Charlotte squad that is 19th in that category, itself, and has endured issues scoring the ball. The home team is 19th in offensive rating, too.

The Hornets are not a team that look to attack in transition, averaging just 12.9 fast-break points per game. As a result, the Pacers should be able to limit the Hornets to running half-court sets. The Hornets have been shooting a high volume of 3-pointers this season, trailing only the Boston Celtics in both attempts and makes per game. The Pacers however have done a great job so far limiting opponents from beyond the arc. They are currently 6th in the league in opponent 3-point percentage and should be able to force Charlotte to be inefficient from downtown. I’m backing the under as a result.

Pacers vs Hornets prediction: Under 235.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Most assumed that Brooklyn was tanking coming into the season, but a 4-4 SU record with a 6-2 ATS mark is telling us this team is better than expected. Forward Cam Thomas is a bucket-getter, while point guard Dennis Schroeder is off to a strong start. When your backcourt is solid, you can stay in a lot of games. Even Ben Simmons is giving them some production; he is second on the team in rebounding and assists in limited minutes.

Boston is coming off a loss for just the second time this season. Forward Jaylen Brown missed the game against the Warriors, but it was still surprising the way the champs wilted down the stretch. They have been playing big without Brown in the lineup, starting Neemias Queta next to Al Horford. He is not a shooting threat, though. Speaking of shooting, reserve guard Peyton Pritchard is averaging 16 ppg off the bench. 

Boston has been a favorite of 10 or more points 5 times already this season. The Celtics are 3-2 ATS in that role. They have not lost any of those games outright, so it is just a matter of how much will they win by, right? I think so; but with such a big margin to cover, it is probably best to keep the play size small. 

Nets vs Celtics prediction: Boston -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a historic start to their season, winning 9 straight games to set a franchise record. On Friday night the Cavs will host the visiting Golden State Warriors, off to a strong and somewhat unexpected 7-1 start to their season. Impressive starts are nothing new for Stephen Curry and the Warriors, but — with the loss of Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks — it appeared as though the rebuild was in full motion. That still might be the case, but through 8 games this season the Warriors have the best net rating in the NBA — with the Cavs not trailing far behind at #3.

Golden State travels to Cleveland as a 4-point underdog and with some injury concerns. Draymond Green is listed as questionable with a right knee contusion, while De’Anthony Melton is questionable due to lower-back pain. For Cleveland, Max Strus is out with a right ankle sprain and Dean Wade is questionable because of an illness. Green’s availability is ultimately something to keep a close eye on, but I like the Warriors in this spot if he can suit up. The Warriors are 5-0 against the spread on the road and the Cavs have not played a difficult schedule thus far. Through their first 9 games, they haven’t gone up against a single team that is currently above .500. I think the Warriors keep this game tight; I’ll back them with the points.

Warriors vs Cavaliers prediction: Golden State +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Milwaukee Bucks’ offense has been showing signs of life, surpassing the 110-point mark in 3 straight contests. Two of those games were against a Cleveland Cavaliers side that is in the top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Now the Bucks will be taking on a New York Knicks team that is surprisingly just 20th in that category. They are however 4th in the league in offensive rating. Against teams ranked above them in that category, the Bucks have given up points totals of 119, 116 and 114. Considering tthey will be on the second night of a back-to-back, it is hard to see the Bucks putting up a much-improved defensive effort.

Milwaukee is tied for the 10th-fastest pace of play so far this season, which should help ensure more possessions for both teams. Given that they both rank in the top 10 in the league in true shooting percentage, they should both be well positioned to take advantage of that. The Bucks have been struggling to take care of the ball, too, ranking 21st in opponent points off turnovers. It should help create opportunities for the Knicks to attack in transition. However, NY is 18th in the league in opponents’ second-chance points per game. With the size of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez on the inside, the visitors should be able to take advantage. I’m backing the over as a result.

Bucks vs Knicks prediction: Over 223.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 225. 

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The Phoenix Suns are off to a great 7-1 start this season but that record is largely down to the fact that they are undefeated in 5 home games. They will be traveling tonight to take on a Dallas Mavericks team that is 4-2 at home. These 2 teams already met in Phoenix at the end of October, with the home side picking up a 114-102 win. The Mavericks have been outscored by 3 points per game on the road. At home however, they boast a +8.2 point differential. Luka Doncic dropped 40 points the last time these 2 squads met and should help them turn around the last result.

Despite having one of the best records in the Western Conference, the Suns are just 9th in the league in net offensive and defensive record. The Mavericks have been outperforming them in that category, ranking 7th in the league in that department. Doncic will be a major mismatch for the Suns. Last season he averaged 41.7 points per game against the them. Considering how he performed in the first H2H matchup this year, it is clear the Suns have not addressed their defensive issues or solved the Doncic problem. With home-court advantage, look for the Mavericks to level up the season series on the back of strong play from their superstar guard.

Suns vs Mavericks prediction: Dallas -2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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