College Basketball Picks

The Golden Gophers of Minnesota look for the SoCal sweep after taking care of USC 69-66 on Saturday as an 8-point underdog as the Under (140.5) cashed. It was just the second outright win in five games for the Golden Gophers, while going just 2-3 ATS in the past five outings. However, as an underdog of eight or more points, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in the past five instances. On the road, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in the previous five road outings, too. The Under and Over have alternated in each of the past seven outings since Jan. 21, while cashing in each of the past four on the road. The Under is 5-1 in the past six conference road tilts, too.

For the Bruins of UCLA, they’ve won eight of the past nine outings, while going 5-0-1 ATS in the previous six contests. However, as a favorite of eight or more points, the Bruins are 7-2 ATS in nine tries this season. UCLA has racked up 78 or more points in two of the past three games, while hitting the mark in four of the past six outings. Still, the defense has been on point, allowing 68 or fewer points in four of the pat five. As such, the Under is 4-1 in that span. UCLA’s defense has allowed 64.8 PPG to rank 23rd in the country, and the perimeter defense is strong, allowing teams to hit just 31.6 percent. Look for UCLA’s defense to keep scores down, and if you are looking for a same-game parlay (SGP), backing Minnesota lightly with the Under is the way to go.

Minnesota vs UCLA prediction: Under 131 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Villanova Wildcats and UConn Huskies will be going head-to-head for the second time this season when they meet again on Tuesday evening at UConn. Their previous encounter came on January 9, when the Wildcats treated the home fans to a 68-66 upset of the then-#9 Huskies. ‘Nova may not be able to win outright on the road, but the visitors should at least be able to be competitive — thus making my Villanova vs UConn pick a somewhat confident ‘Cats +9.5. The Wildcats have won 3 of their last 4 contests, their best stretch of the season aside from a 5-game winning streak in November and December that came mostly against non-conference competition. Eric Dixon is averaging 23.2 points per game and Wooga Poplar (14.8 ppg) has been red hot of late, with 18 points or more in 3 straight outings and a 24-point performance against Creighton on February 1.

UConn is certainly not playing like a 2-time defending National Champion. Head coach Dan Hurley’s squad is a modest 17-8 overall (9-5 Big East) and 5-5 SU in its past 10 games. The Huskies have won by more than 8 points only once in their last 11 contests and have not won by more than 11 since January 1. These simply aren’t the same Huskies that have cut down the nets twice in a row. Veteran leader Alex Karaban admitted following Saturday’s loss to Seton Hall that guys are playing relatively disinterested basketball right now. Perhaps that won’t change until the stakes increase in the Big East Tournament and NCAA Tournament, whereas Villanova will surely be playing with vigor — needing every win it can get in an effort to join UConn in the Big Dance.

Villanova vs UConn prediction: Villanova +9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.

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The brutal SEC schedule continues on Tuesday as the Oklahoma Sooners face the Florida Gators. Florida has been an absolute menace at home, winning nearly all their home games by 20+ points, and they have played their way into a possible #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Todd Golden expected to be in this place, even if the casual fan didn’t realize how good his squad would be. The Sooners, on the other hand, are having a dreadful time adjusting to life in the SEC. After starting the season undefeated, they are just 3-9 in conference play, and they just can’t seem to catch a break. This team is talented enough to stay with the Gators, but the blowout is the most likely outcome. In short, there is a wide variance of outcomes in this one. I don’t love the 15-point spread for that reason, and I think the best play in this game is the game total under. My Oklahoma vs Florida prediction is the game total under 157.

The Sooners are a frustrating team. They are in the top 50 in the nation according to the metrics guys, yet that hardly seems possible when they are 3-9 in conference play. They have dropped 4 straight, but 3 of those have been to top-25 opponents. They are, in actuality, a really complete team that is talented and balanced, and they have 3 guys averaging double figures. But the SEC, man. There are no freebies. If you are just looking at stats and metrics, there is every reason to think this game could be close. But Florida doesn’t let anyone stay close in Gainesville. I think we seem the Gators get into the 80s in this game (they average 83 ppg), but Oklahoma will likely struggle to get into the 70s on the road. We can have an 85-70 game and still stay under this total. I like my chances there.

Oklahoma vs Florida prediction: Under 157 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The highly anticipated Big Ten matchup between the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans features two teams in solid form, though each has had its struggles recently. Purdue (19-7) comes into the game after back-to-back losses, including a disappointing 10-point defeat at home to Wisconsin. Their defense has been inconsistent, as noted by giving up over 90 points last game. The Boilermakers rely heavily on their trio of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer, but they’ll need more from players like C.J. Cox and Caleb Furst to get back on track. 

Michigan State (20-5), meanwhile, had a close call against Illinois but managed to pull out the win, thanks to their tough defense and strong interior play. The Spartans don’t have a single standout scorer, but they boast a deep roster, with several players capable of stepping up offensively. Their defense has been a strength all season, ranking 13th in efficiency, and their ability to control the glass (ranked 9th in rebounds) is a big advantage. Despite some shooting struggles, they remain dangerous in transition, where they excel.

Purdue has had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning five straight matchups, but Michigan State’s defense and home-court advantage could give them the edge this time. The Spartans are 12-1 at home and 17-3 when favored, making them the pick to cover the spread in this Big Ten battle. MSU laying the points looks like a solid bet on Tuesday.

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction: Spartans -3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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Tuesday provides us with a massive Big Ten matchup, as the unranked Illinois Fighting Illini (17-9) head to Madison to play the red-hot Wisconsin Badgers (20-5). Over the weekend, Illinois could not figure anything out offensively. The Illini scored 65 points on fewer than 1 point per possession at home against Michigan State, mostly because of their 7/33 performance from the three-point line. Wisconsin had a completely different experience in West Lafayette, as the Badgers were on fire in a 94-84 win against Purdue. The Badgers made almost 91% of their attempts inside the arc – which is insane – and connected on 40% of their attempts beyond the arc as well. 

These teams met back in December, and Illinois failed to cover but came away with the win 86-80. The game soared over the 153-point total despite fewer than one-third of the 62 total three-point attempts going in, so oddsmakers adjusted the number up by nearly 3 possessions. I still don’t think it’s enough, and am expecting this to be another high-scoring game at least into the mid-to-upper 160s. Illinois plays at the fastest pace in the Big Ten, and while Wisconsin plays at a much slower pace, the Badgers have gotten into track meets with efficient and fast-paced teams like Illinois in the past. 

Illinois and Wisconsin are similar in that both teams have excelled offensively in recent weeks while struggling to get stops consistently. Per CBB Analytics, the Illini and the Badgers are in the 97th percentile or better in offensive rating over their last 5 games, but they are in the 28th percentile or worse defensively in that span. Look for Wisconsin to score efficiently off the dribble against an Illinois defense that has been exposed off the bounce this season and has significantly underperformed expectations in 4 straight. It only helps Wisconsin’s offense that Illinois’ Morez Johnson is out for his game, as he is graded as the best Illini defender by Evan Miya. On the other side of the floor, Illinois should have success in its pick-and-pop sets with Tomislav Ivisic, Will Riley and Ben Humrichous. I lean to the Over in this one.

Illinois vs Wisconsin prediction: Over 161 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 162.

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Facing this Houston Cougars defense can be frustrating for any team. According to KenPom rankings, Houston is ranked 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency giving up just 89.8 points per 100 possessions this season. As for Arizona State, their frustration levels are at all-time highs after losing five in a row, and it’s not going to get any easier tonight facing this Cougars defense. Houston leads the Big 12 with a 13-1 record in conference play, and Arizona State sits in 15th with a 3-11 record. It’s not easy for any team to play against their conference rival on the road, and tonight, I think Houston will still manage to cover this large spread and here’s why. 

Houston is the better team on both ends of the floor, there’s no denying that. Houston is shooting 46% from the field this season, averaging 75.2 points per game. On the defensive side of things, they’re giving up 57.3 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 38.1% from the field. As for Arizona State, they’re shooting 44% from the field this season, averaging 74.3 points per game, and they’re giving up 74.2 points per game on average. Arizona State hasn’t proven they can beat a team of this caliber yet this season, plus they struggle with turnovers, and have issues with perimeter defense. I think Houston is going to apply a tremendous amount of pressure on the Sun Devils, forcing turnovers and taking an early lead, which will add to Arizona States frustration levels. Arizona State may hang around for a little, but I expect this Houston team to be too much for them to handle, making Houston my best bet of the day.  

Houston vs Arizona State prediction: Houston -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kansas heads to Provo at the worst possible time, struggling mightily on offense while facing a BYU team that thrives at home. The Jayhawks have dropped three of their last five and are just 3-6 on the road this season, a troubling sign as they visit the Marriott Center, where the Cougars are an impressive 12-2. Adding to the concern, Kansas has covered the spread just five times in conference play (5-9 ATS) and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.

Offensive woes have plagued Kansas. They haven’t cracked 74 points in five straight games, and while their defense ranks among the best in advanced metrics, it hasn’t been enough to compensate for cold shooting. Zeke Mayo has been scorching hot from deep, but the rest of the team is ice-cold. Rylan Griffen, expected to be a key perimeter weapon, has struggled to find his rhythm.

Meanwhile, BYU has been dominant at home, going 5-2 straight up and ATS in Big 12 play. The Cougars just dismantled a red-hot Kansas State team by 15, showcasing their defensive prowess. BYU’s biggest defensive flaw is allowing open threes, but Kansas doesn’t take enough of them to exploit it. With the Jayhawks’ offensive struggles continuing, BYU should control this one at home.

Kansas vs BYU Prediction: Cougars -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number