College Basketball Picks

Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament tips off with a 12:15 pm ET battle between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Baylor Bears in Raleigh, North Carolina. It’s a showdown between a pair of Power 4 teams, with each having struggled down the stretch of the regular season. Mississippi State has lost 5 of its last 7 games and it went 8-10 in the SEC, but being 2 games under .500 in that loaded conference is nothing to be ashamed about. Baylor was seventh in the Big 12 at 10-10 and it has dropped 5 of its last 8 contests — also against stout competition. With the Bears supremely battle tested coming out of the SEC, my Mississippi State vs Baylor pick is on them to cover a small -1 spread.

Since November, MSU’s worst losses are by 6 points to Oklahoma (a tournament team) and in overtime to Texas (was a tournament team before losing to Xavier on Wednesday). As good as Baylor freshman VJ Edgecombe is, Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard (18.7 ppg) will likely be the best player on the floor in this one. Hubbard is only a sophomore, but he gained valuable experience last year by leading the Bulldogs to the SEC Tournament semifinals and a berth in the Big Dance. He knows what he’s doing in March. A matchup with his former Duke team is possible for Baylor guard Jeremy Roach in round 2, but for me it will be Mississippi State who advances.

Baylor vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State -1 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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The 15-seed Robert Morris Colonials may have a significantly shorter trip to Cleveland, Ohio ahead of their first-round game against the 2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide on Friday afternoon, but it’s perhaps the only advantage they have in this contest as 22.5-point underdogs. Playing in the Horizon League, Robert Morris finished atop the regular season standings and secured an 11-point win over Youngstown State in the Horizon League Championship game to punch their ticket to the Colonials’ first NCAA Tournament appearance in 10 years. Aside from an overtime scare against Oakland in the Semifinal, Robert Morris has faced little resistance, winning 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points over their last 10 games.

The problem for Robert Morris is obviously the strength of their schedule. The Colonials only played 2 teams that rank inside the top 150 teams in the nation, per KenPom, and they happen to be their last 2 games against Oakland and Youngstown State. The Crimson Tide rank 6 per KenPom and 5 per BartTorvik, and given the fact they play with the fastest tempo in the nation, Alabama should run up and down the court against Robert Morris. While I lean on Alabama covering the spread in this game, I’d much rather make a play on the game total and take the over. Alabama is leading the country in scoring at 91.1 ppg, while Robert Morris falls just inside the top 100, averaging 76.9 ppg. The Crimson Tide could easily stick 100 on the Colonials in this game and we just need the Colonials to do their part. Luckily, Robert Morris has surpassed their season scoring average in 6 of their last 9 games while averaging 80.4 ppg over that span. The Crimson Tide are one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers, so the Colonials should have plenty of opportunities to score. Back the over in this round 1 matchup.

Robert Morris vs Alabama prediction: Over 165.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The 3 seed vs 14 seed in the South region will give us a matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Lipscomb Bisons (ASUN champs). We will take a look at the total in this game, where I believe both offenses are set up for success. A key injury for both teams is a driving factor when backing the over in this contest. For Iowa State, Senior guard Keshon Gilbert has been ruled out for the season with a lower body injury, and he is one of their best perimeter defenders. Curtis Jones looks like he will replace Gilbert in the starting lineup, and Jones is much more offensive centric guard than Gilbert. The Gilbert injury should give Lipscomb more freedom to operate on the perimeter and generate more open looks from beyond the arc, where the Bisons are one of the best shooting teams in the country (36.7% from 3, 44th nationally). Iowa State is a great turnover forcing and rim denial defense, but Lipscomb takes care of the ball at a high level (21st nationally in TO rate) and the Bisons prefer to operate on the perimeter anyways (25th nationally in 3-point attempt rate), so we can consider their offense to be in a decent spot to succeed.

As for Lipscomb, the injury to Center Dylan Faulkner may expose their defense. While Faulkner has been out for the last 19 games and will miss the remainder of the season, the Bisons have yet to play a power conference opponent without him, so the step up in class may expose this defense for real. Especially against a rim-heavy Iowa State offense (82nd percentile in rim rate, per Synergy), the lack of size for the Bisons without Faulkner may loom large on Friday. Both offenses may have advantages in this contest, so I expect many points here and will take the over.

Lipscomb vs Iowa State prediction: Over 143 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The second day of the NCAA Tournament first round is one that doesn’t necessarily the same caliber of matchups on paper as Thursday’s slate. However, one of the best games on the Friday card features a couple of proud and storied mid-major programs as the #12 seed Colorado State Rams will take on the #5 seed Memphis Tigers in the West Region. The Rams are certainly one of the hottest teams in college basketball, having won 10 straight contests and 11 out of their last 12 games overall. In fact, Colorado State’s last defeat came all the way back on February 11 to Utah State, a game they have since avenged twice over the past couple of weeks. The fact of the matter is that Colorado State is playing like a top 10 caliber team (ranked 8th at Barttorvik since February 15), while Memphis is ranked all the way down at 77th in that same span and looks like a team that is heading in the wrong direction heading into the NCAA Tournament. 

Leading the way for Colorado State is veteran guard Nique Clifford, who is in the midst of one of the best scoring runs of any player in the nation. It’s hard to see the Memphis defense (66th in adjusted efficiency over the past month) containing the dynamic guard, who is coming off a massive 3-game stretch in the Mountain West tournament. The Tigers also struggle mightily at defending the 3-point line (246th in 3-point defense since per Barttorvik), and a defense that is susceptible to allowing open three-pointers isn’t exactly a recipe for success against a Colorado State team that is shooting the ball extremely well (1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage since Feb. 1) and is shooting 47% from beyond the arc over this 10-game winning streak.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense isn’t anything to write home about, but Memphis’ offense has real problems of its own. Superstar guard PJ Haggerty is a walking bucket and he should undoubtedly cause problems in this game, but the Tigers are going to be without senior guard Tyrese Hunter, who is an integral part of this backcourt on both sides of the ball. Without their veteran leader, this mistake-prone Memphis team (304th in turnover percentage) could be in some trouble against a Colorado State group that is playing solid, fundamental defense and rebounding the ball really well of late (15th in defensive rebound percentage since Feb. 1). Ultimately, I’m content to ride with the hotter team and a great coach in Niko Medved to pick up the victory on Thursday.

Colorado State vs Memphis prediction: Colorado State ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The NCAA Tournament’s first round features a matchup between the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils (31-3) and the 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (23-12). Mount St. Mary’s advanced by defeating American University 83-72 in the First Four, showcasing an impressive offensive performance. The team shot 58% from the field, 41% from three-point range, and 82% from the free-throw line. Sophomore guard Dallas Hobbs contributed 17 points, while frontcourt players Jedy Cordilia and Dola Adebayo each added 22 points. Duke enters the tournament on an 11-game winning streak. Freshman standout Cooper Flagg, who recently suffered a left ankle sprain during the ACC Tournament, is expected to return for this game. Head coach Jon Scheyer expressed optimism about Flagg’s availability, stating it’s “full steam ahead” for the tournament opener.

Both teams have been performing exceptionally against the spread (ATS) across various scenarios—whether as underdogs, favorites, after wins, or regardless of rest advantages—making it challenging to identify a clear betting edge. The current betting line favors Duke by 32.5 points. While Duke is anticipated to win, covering such a substantial spread is uncertain. Mount St. Mary’s recent offensive surge and Duke’s potential cautious approach with Flagg’s return could result in a more competitive game than the spread suggests. Therefore, taking Mount St. Mary’s +32.5 appears to be a reasonable prediction.

Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke prediction: MSM +32.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 30.

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In the East region, the 7th seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels and 10th seeded Vanderbilt Commodores will face off in the first round. Saint Mary’s had a fantastic regular season, finishing 28-5 with a 17-1 WCC record. The Gaels fell to Gonzaga in the WCC title game, but were able to receive an at-large bid due to their impressive resume. As for Vanderbilt, they lost their first round game in the SEC tournament, but were ultimately able to earn an at-large bid behind their signature wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. The Gaels have some advantages in this game, so we will look to back them as small favorites on Friday.

The Gaels biggest edge in this contest comes on the glass, where they rank top 10 in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. This factor does not bode well for the smaller Commodores frontcourt, as they are outside the top 100 in rebound rate on both sides of the floor. The Gaels should also be able to play at their preferred slower pace in this contest. Per Synergy, Vanderbilt operates in transition in the 80th percentile, while Saint Mary’s completely cuts off this avenue (9th percentile in transition frequency allowed, 98th percentile in points per possession against). Games typically tend to slow down in a tournament setting, so backing the slower pace team that can make the other feel uncomfortable is an angle that piques my interest.

The one area of concern for the Gaels is the pressure defense of the Commodores. Coach Byington’s squad presses on 14% of possessions (85th percentile in frequency). The Gaels rank in just the 26th percentile in points per possession against the press, but they take care of the ball well enough to not give away possessions (39th nationally in turnover rate), so this factor may not end up being much of a problem after all. Saint Mary’s has been one of the more underrated teams in the nation all year long, and I believe they prove themselves once again on Friday afternoon.

Saint Mary’s vs Vanderbilt prediction: St. Mary’s -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #11 Tar Heels came alive in the First Four on Tuesday in a 95-68 win over San Diego State. To put it lightly, they absolutely destroyed SDSU, scoring 1.36 points per possession — including 14-for-24 from the 3-point line. The Tar Heels also knocked down 21 of their 24 free-throws and grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. On the other end, UNC forced San Diego State into some really tough shots. Due to the Heels pulling away early, the Aztecs seemed to think they needed to unload from the perimeter to remain competitive. That didn’t work, as SDSU made just 8 of its 27 attempts beyond the arc. 

The Tar Heels will meet the Ole Miss Rebels on Friday, and I like this matchup for the Heels. Ole Miss is very streaky offensively and doesn’t create second-chance opportunities at an elite rate. In fact, the Rebels are 313th in offensive rebounding rate this season, due in large part to a lack of elite size. San Diego State showed us how costly one-and-done possessions can be against this UNC squad, as the Tar Heels gobble up defensive rebounds at a top-25 rate and are able to utilize their stable of veteran guards to push the ball up the floor in transition at a ferocious pace. On the other end of the floor, North Carolina has surged defensively; the Heels are top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 22. When you add that to a 44% 3-point percentage in that span, you can understand why they are playing as well as anyone in the country right now. 

The Rebels have played by far the better level of competition this season, but is there a chance they are gassed following a tenuous SEC schedule? I think there’s merit to that idea. While UNC didn’t have many marquee wins this year, the talent level is there and it is playing well on both ends of the floor. North Carolina is my pick to advance to the second round.

North Carolina vs Ole Miss prediction: North Carolina ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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The Grand Canyon Antelopes will be making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance when they face the Maryland Terrapins during first-round action on Friday afternoon. Grand Canyon accounted itself well each of the past 2 years, losing to #3 seed Gonzaga by 12 points in 2023 before winning a 5-12 matchup over a favored St. Mary’s team last season and then losing to eventual Final Four participant Alabama by 11 points. All 5 Antelopes starters have played in multiple NCAA Tournaments and 3 are former WAC Tournament Most Outstanding Players (Tyon Grant-Foster, Ray Harrison and most recently JaKobe Coles). This kind of experience cannot be discounted in the Big Dance.

Maryland, on the other hand, has only 1 player (Julian Reese) who has participated in March Madness–with the Terrapins in 2023. Head coach Kevin Willard’s club is led by freshman big man Derik Queen, who averages 16.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest. The Terps are a solid squad, but half of their 6 Big Ten regular-season losses came to opponents that are not in the tournament. Grand Canyon head coach Bryce Drew had his own One Shining Moment in 1998 with a famous buzzer-beater to stun Ole Miss in the first round. Now he will make another attempt with his Antelopes team to produce historic March Madness result. It may not happen, but at the very least the ‘Lopes should be competitive.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland prediction: Grand Canyon +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #1 Florida Gators earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a sterling 30-4 record that consisted of wins over Tennessee (twice), Alabama (twice), Auburn, Missouri and Texas A&M while lacking any bad losses. The Gators have great balance, leading the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency with a top 10 mark on the defensive side. They have plenty of Division 1 experience in the back court with 3 senior guards, including Final Four experience with Alijah Martin – who was part of FAU’s Cinderella run a couple years back. Furthermore, the Gators also have unique size with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Micah Handlogten and Thomas Haugh – 2 of which can step outside the arc and knock down 3s, while the other 2 protect the rim and grab offensive rebounds at an elite rate. 

The MEAC winners in #16 Norfolk State don’t have any marquee wins, but the Spartans played Tennessee, Baylor, Stanford and Grand Canyon this year. They lost those games by an average of about 16 points per game, but that was much earlier in the season and right before conference play for most of those power conference programs. Norfolk doesn’t possess many characteristics that I look for in an upset pick. The Spartans struggle to take care of the ball (258th turnover rate), and they don’t shoot well from the perimeter (31.3% 3-point%). Moreover, their defense is suspect, as KenPom has it 217th in the country.

There’s too much size and firepower on Florida’s roster for me to get cute on this game. Give me the Gators to win and cover convincingly. 

Norfolk State vs Florida prediction: Florida -28.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -29.5.

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The Wildcats enter this tournament as a #3 seed in the Midwest and they’re getting ready to take on #14 Troy on Friday night. The Wildcats enter this game as double-digit favorites — and rightfully so, as they had the fourth-best scoring offense in the NCAA this season at 85.3 ppg. Troy made the field of 68 by winning the Sun Belt Tournament, and it’s not the offense that has been helping them win games this season — it has been the defense. As we get ready for tipoff, I’m leaning toward the Wildcats for my Troy vs Kentucky prediction.

If I were the Trojans, I would not want to face this Wildcats team in the first round. Kentucky is loaded with talent; it has 6 players averaging double-digits, but unfortunately will be without second-leading scorer Jaxson Robinson, who was averaging 13 ppg this season. Despite boasting a juggernaut of an offense, the Wildcats struggled tremendously on defense, allowing 77.9 ppg this season. If Troy wants to keep this game close, it will need to attack this Wildcats defense — and Tayton Conerway is the person to do it. Conerway is averaging 14.3 ppg this season, leading this Trojans team on offense and during the Sun Belt Tournament scoring 20.3 ppg. Troy won’t go down without a fight in this matchup, and despite Kentucky struggling on defense this season, I think it has too much fire power for the Trojans to handle — making the Wildcats my best bet of the day. 

Troy vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky -11.5  (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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On Friday, Cleveland will host to one of the more intriguing matchups of the day, as the New Mexico Lobos face the Marquette Golden Eagles. This game features some star power between two teams that are very similarly built. New Mexico has had a full week off after a semifinal exit from Mountain West tournament, but that’s okay, because they didn’t need to win that one anyway. Marquette has struggled a bit down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4 games. For those looking for an upset, this is a good place to sniff around, as the Lobos are a very dangerous team. You can bet that coach Richard Pitino has made a call to his legendary dad for some pointers on how to beat this Marquette team, something his dad has done 3 times this season. Moreover, the Lobos are built very much like St. John’s, and I think that gives them an advantage.

These teams are very similar. Both are well-balanced and effective on both ends of the court. Both teams have star point guards who take care of the ball and drive their offenses. Both teams thrive on creating turnovers, but neither team turns it over much with their star guards, so you have to figure the turnover battle will be a wash in this one. You should know about Kam Jones for Marquette and Donavan Dent of New Mexico, two of the best players in the country. But you also need to know about New Mexico’s Nelly Junior Joseph, who is an absolute force on the interior. I think both teams will take care of the ball and limit fast break points, and New Mexico will control the boards enough to keep this game close. I think this one will be a nail-biter to the end, so I am happy to take the points with the underdog.

New Mexico vs Marquette prediction: New Mexico +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Akron, a #13 seed in the NCAA Tournament, gets ready to take on #4 Arizona on Friday and it should be a great matchup between 2 high-powered offenses. Last year the Zips made the Big Dance as a #14 seed, losing in the first round to Creighton. Akron has won 7 in a row and 21 of its last 22 games, and facing a Big 12 team doesn’t scare the Zips. The Wildcats lost to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament final, so they will be looking for some revenge and definitely boast the talent to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. As we get ready for tipoff, I’m leaning toward the Zips for my Akron vs Arizona pick.

The Zips enter this game as +14 underdogs, and despite there being a stark difference between conferences, I still believe they can score plenty of baskets in this matchup. The Wildcats’ defense is giving up 72.4 ppg this season, and the Zips are shooting 47.3% from the field. Toward the end of the Big 12 campaign, the ‘Cats gave up 100 points to Arizona State and 96 to BYU. This Akron team can move the ball and has plenty of players who will be able to score some buckets. At the end of the day, I think Caleb Love will help carry Arizona to victory. However, I think the Zips will be tough for the Wildcats to handle and they should be able to cover this large spread — making Akron my best bet of the day. 

Akron vs Arizona prediction: Akron +14  (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The #8 vs #9 matchup in the West Region is awesome. The reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies will meet the Oklahoma Sooners in Raleigh on Friday night, with the winner advancing to a potential matchup with #1 Florida on Sunday. Both teams are playing pretty well on the offensive end of late, mutually ranking in the top 12 of Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency since February 22nd. Similarly, neither team has been very good defensively. UConn and Oklahoma rank 99th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month, and neither team is disciplined enough to defend without fouling. In fact, the Huskies are 333rd in free throw rate allowed, while the Sooners are 254th. However, the Sooners are active in the passing lines, which is a staple of Porter Moser’s defense dating back to his days at Loyola.

This game will be a pace war, as Oklahoma wants to run while UConn is content walking the ball up the court and running their sets. It’s difficult to project games with such a dichotomy in tempo, but I like the Sooners to keep this game inside the number. Oklahoma has been excellent in the underdog role this season, covering 12 of 18 games when catching points in a much more difficult conference than this season’s Big East. They come into this tournament on a hot streak against the number as well, covering 7 of their last 10 games. UConn cannot say the same. The Huskies have been up-and-down against the number leading into the tournament, and they haven’t fared well in the favorite role. 

Jeremiah Fears has blossomed into quite the playmaker, as the freshman guard loves to get downhill and finish at the rim or dish to a shooter. He will likely be able to get what he wants against a UConn defense that is in the 3rd percentile against shots off the dribble according to Hoop-Explorer. Outside of him, the Sooners are loaded with seniors and have 3 players on the wings that shoot at least 39% from the perimeter on at least 90 attempts. Forward Sam Godwin, who is the team’s best rebounder and shot-blocker, has missed Oklahoma’s last 3-4 games with an injury, but I think there’s reason to believe he will return for this game. Coach Moser said that Godwin is still day-to-day, but has been progressing nicely in his rehab and that he’s doing more every day. Given the fact that this is the NCAA Tournament, I think Godwin gives it a go even if he’s not fully 100%. His presence is crucial for the Sooners down low, even if he’s only 80-90%. 

Maybe it’s because I have been burned by UConn plenty of times this season, but I just don’t trust this team laying more than 2 possessions against an Oklahoma squad that can score in bunches, turn teams over and get to the free throw line for easy points. These teams are fairly even in my evaluation, and I even have Oklahoma as a small favorite in this matchup based on their adjusted numbers over the last month or so, so I like the Sooners to cover and maybe even win outright. Due to UConn’s recent postseason pedigree, my best bet is Oklahoma with the points — but I likely will sprinkle on the money line, as well.

Oklahoma vs UConn prediction: Oklahoma +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

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One of the final games of the first round of the NCAA Tournament takes place on Friday between the Xavier Musketeers and Illinois Fighting Illini. Xavier is fresh off a thrilling comeback victory over the Texas Longhorns in what was an instant classic First Four game in Dayton on Wednesday, and I suspect that the Musketeers might not be operating at full rest with this quick turnaround into playing Illinois in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Not only will the Illini presumably have the backing of the crowd in this game, but Illinois hasn’t played since last Friday, so it clearly has a major rest advantage as well. With that said, I’ll avoid picking a side and instead, make a wager on the total in this contest.

The Illini have had a tumultuous season to this point, but Brad Underwood’s team has battled through key injuries, illness and a host of other issues as well. Illinois finally got healthy in recent weeks, and we saw things immediately turn around for Kasparas Jakučionis and company in massive wins over over Iowa, Michigan and Purdue in consecutive games to close the regular season. It’s worth pointing out that Illinois is still due for some positive shooting regression as well, and this matchup is extremely favorable for an offense that has shown the capability to be a top 10-15 unit in the nation at its best. Conversely, the Xavier defense just struggled with Texas, and the Musketeers’ poor 3-point defense could burn them against an Illini team that attempts threes at a top 30 rate nationally. As for the Xavier offense, the Musketeers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation by percentage, and they should see plenty of success against an Illinois defense that is a whopping 311th in 3-point percentage defense on the season. Most importantly, both teams are above average in pace of play compared to the rest of this field, so let’s back the over before it continues to move.

Xavier vs Illinois prediction: Over 158.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 159.5.

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As the first round winds to a close, we head to Cleveland for a Bryant Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans prediction. For people that love picking upsets, the Bryant Bulldogs are on lots of folks’ watchlists, but I think we are getting carried away here. Bryant is buried on the metrics lists for a reason, and I think this is a spot where we will see superior talent taking over a game. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Sparty absolutely mowed through the Big Ten schedule this year, winning 17 of 20 games in a conference that produced 8 tournament teams.

Lots of money is coming in early on the Bryant upset, and that has pushed this number down a bit. Bryant is a go-fast team, playing at the 7th fastest temp in the country. You would imagine they would have a much harder time doing that against Izzo’s bunch than against their American East opponents though. Their one measuring stick game was against St. John’s, a team that plays similarly to Michigan State, and the Bulldogs lost that one 99-77. Bryant is also a tall team—in fact, they are the tallest team in the country, on average—but they don’t necessarily rebound all that well. My one concern in this game is that Michigan State does not tend to blow out a lot of opponents, despite having a very efficient offense and a smothering defense. The Spartans could win this game by 12 to 15 and still feel like they were in complete control the whole way. Still, I think this is a spot where a superior team is just going to blow through an overmatched small conference team. Give me Sparty to cover.

Bryant vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Liberty Flames and the Oregon Ducks will meet in Seattle on Friday for round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. The Big Dance will be in full swing by the time these 2 teams face off, but it should be one of the best games of the day. Liberty has been among the best mid-major teams in the country, winning the Conference USA regular season and tournament championship. Oregon had a great start to the year but finished just eighth in the Big Ten. I like Liberty to keep this game close and cover the 7-point spread.

Liberty +7 is my best bet because it is an elite shooting team and thee defense should be able to limit Oregon’s 3-point shots. According to KenPom, Liberty’s offense is ranked #2 in effective field-goal percentage and #5 in 3-point percentage and #13 in 2-point percentage. The Flames’ offense will likely be good enough to have success Oregon’s defense. Liberty’s defense is ranked #3 in 3-point percentage and #10 in effective field-goal percentage, so Oregon’s points will not come easy. The Flames are a good enough team to keep this game close and potentially pull off a classic 12-over-5 upset. I’m taking Liberty to cover.

Liberty vs Oregon prediction: Liberty +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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