College Basketball Picks

It’s a Big 12 showdown as the Kansas Jayhawks make their way to Texas to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. Kansas is currently ranked No. 12 in the nation and they rebounded nicely in their last game from their blow out loss against then No.2 ranked Iowa State where they lost by a final score of 74-57.  As for TCU, they also rebounded from their loss against Utah last week and defeated then No.25 ranked Baylor over the weekend by a final score of 74-41.  TCU knocking off a ranked opponent had to feel good as they’ve struggled most of the season, and today, they’ll be looking to knock off another ranked opponent within the Big 12. 

Kansas has had some tough losses this season and they head into this game averaging 76.5 points while giving up 63.5 points per game.  Kansas shot 55.4% from the field against Kansas State, going 6 for 16 from deep and out rebounded their opponents 35-25, 11 of those being offensive rebounds.  Against Iowa State, Kansas shot 40.7% from the field and shot 5 for 16 from deep, and they were out rebounded 33-43 in that matchup, which I think will play an important role in tonight’s matchup.  TCU doesn’t have a good offense and they’re averaging just 70.4 points while giving up 66.5 points per game.  TCU is going to need another shooting performance like they had against Baylor, shooting 50.9% from the field and going 7 for 18 from deep.  A big reason they were able to pick up a victory in that matchup was because they out rebounded Baylor 41-26 with 10 offensive rebounds.  TCU grabs an average of 37.9 rebounds per game while allowing their opponents to grab 37.8 rebounds per game, but I think they’ll struggle against Kansas as they average 42.9 rebounds per game and only give up 35.8 rebounds per game.  A big part of that comes from the 7’2” senior, Hunter Dickinson who averages 10.2 rebounds per game and TCU will be looking for Ernest Udeh Jr. to snag a few extra rebounds in this matchup as he averages 8.3 rebounds per game.  Kansas is the better team in this matchup, and I don’t think they have what it takes to keep up with this Jayhawks team.  TCU isn’t a great rebounding team and despite them finding success against Baylor, I don’t think they’ll be able to do that against Dickinson and this Kansas team.  Look for Kansas to stick it to their Big 12 opponent and cover the spread, making them my best bet of the day. 

Kansas vs TCU prediction: Kansas -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Xavier Musketeers will travel to New York City on Wednesday night to play a Big East Conference game against the St. John’s Red Storm. St. John’s is ranked #20 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll and has lost just 3 times this season. They are tied for 1st place in the conference standings and will look to continue their quest for a title with a win here. Xavier has won their last 3 games but has not been as good as people expected in the preseason. They were unable to defend home court against St. John’s earlier in the month and we expect a similar result here. The Red Storm won the first matchup 82-72 and we like St. John’s to cover the 7.5-point spread in this one.

St. John’s defense should give Xavier major problems. The Musketeers scored just 72 points and shot 22.2 percent from beyond the arc in their last matchup. According to KenPom, the Red Storm’s defense is ranked #5 in adjusted defensive efficiency and #11 in two-point percentage. Xavier is ranked #200 nationally in two-point percentage, so points in the paint may be hard to come by for them inside Madison Square Garden. St. John’s is 12-0 at home this year and has won 5 straight games, so we like them to comfortably take care of business here.

Xavier vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5.

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The nightcap in the Big 12 takes us to Waco, TX where the Kansas State Wildcats take on the Baylor Bears. Here we have two teams riding losing streaks. The Bears have lost 2 in a row after blowing a game at home Sunday to TCU. The Bears essentially played a 6-man rotation, and they were simply bullied and out-physicaled in their own gym. Kansas State, on the other hand, has dropped 8 of their last 9, including 5 straight conference games. Both teams should be playing with some desperation, but I don’t think that leads to a lot of points. With a spread number sitting near a dozen, it is hard to feel good about either side there. Instead, I think the best play in this game is the game total under. My Kansas State vs Baylor prediction is under 142.

Both teams play at a slow and deliberate pace, both ranking outside the top 200 in pace of play. When these teams aren’t in transition, they are often standing at the head of the key with the ball on their hip, waiting on a screen and roll to develop. There will be a lot of shots forced up late in the shot clock, often from isolation plays. Kansas State, in fact, has only eclipsed the 70-point mark one time in their 5-game losing skid, and while Baylor has a much more efficient offense, 72 has been their highwater mark over the past 5 games themselves. I suppose it is possible that either team could catch fire, but that has not been their pattern thus far. I do not see a lot of reason to expect points here, so I am taking the under.

Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction: Under 142 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A Mountain West showdown will take place in Logan, Utah, where the Nevada Wolfpack will visit the Utah State Aggies. These teams have experienced different starts to conference play, as the Aggies are in serious contention for the Mountain West crown with a 6-1 league record, while Nevada is playing catch-up with their 3-4 league mark. We are beginning to see conference rematches across college basketball, and this game will be a rematch from their New Year’s Eve matchup, where the Aggies were able to pull off the 69-64 victory on the road in Reno. Despite this, the underdog Nevada Wolfpack are the side I will be playing on Wednesday.

While you can say Nevada has played well below their preseason expectations this season, the Wolfpack can also be considered unlucky during conference play. Nevada started 0-4 in league play, but none of those losses came by more than 5 points. They have since righted the ship and won their last 3 games, albeit against the bottom of the league. As for Utah State, they have been on the opposite end of late game fortune. Despite the Aggies being tied atop the Mountain West, all 7 of their games have come down to the wire with their largest margin of victory being by 7 against San Jose State. There seems to have been some late game “magic” on the Aggies side, but we may have seen this team begin to regress in their last game at UNLV, where they lost 65-62. Utah State has played with fire all season long, so laying 6 points is a steep price that I am not willing to pay.

The actual matchup seems to favor the Wolfpack as well. On the offensive side, Nevada’s shooting ability can break down the matchup zone that Aggie’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun has run all season long. Wing pieces in Xavier DuSell, Tre Coleman, Kobe Sanders, and Nick Davidson all possess the perimeter firepower to exploit an Aggie’s defense that gives up plenty of open looks from beyond the arc (69th percentile in unguarded catch and shoot frequency allowed). The fact that Nevada has already seen the Utah State zone is an important factor as well, as this type of zone defense is meant to confuse offenses and take them out of their rhythm. Now that Nevada has a full game of film to study, they should be much better suited to attack this Aggie’s defense.

On the defensive side, Nevada looks to prevent their opponent’s transition opportunities (3rd percentile in transition frequency allowed). The Wolfpack also try to pack the paint to deny their opponent’s chances at the rim, and these are 2 areas that Utah State looks to create their value. Nevada should be well suited to contain the Aggie’s offensive attack. Nevada desperately needs a marquee victory to at least give them a chance at an at-large bid come March. Even if they can’t, Nevada profiles as a team that can keep games close, so we will be taking the Wolfpack +6 on Wednesday night.

Nevada vs Utah State prediction: Nevada +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A top 25 showdown will take place in Oxford, Mississippi, where the Texas A&M Aggies will visit the Ole Miss Rebels. Both of these teams are known as dark horse candidates to win the SEC, so this game could go a long way in achieving their goals. The Aggies saw their star guard, Wade Taylor, return to action in their last game against LSU, where they snapped a 2-game losing streak. As for Ole Miss, their undefeated SEC record is now gone after an OT road loss in the “Egg Bowl” against Mississippi State. Despite these teams feeling evenly matched, a case will be made for Ole Miss as a small home favorite.

The turnover battle may be a major factor in this contest, and Ole Miss holds an edge in this category. The Rebels are top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover rate, led by the sure handed backcourt of Jaylen Murray and Sean Pedulla. The Rebels have ball handlers and scorers all over the floor, and this could make it difficult on a Texas A&M defense that prefers to deny the rim at the cost of giving up jump shots. The Aggies may have no choice but to give the perimeter attack of the Rebels more attention (35.5% from 3), and this could potentially break down their defense.

On the other side of the floor, Chris Beard’s patented no-middle defense can force Texas A&M’s offense away from the rim. This may be troublesome for an Aggie offense that is 306th nationally in 3-point percentage. Having Wade Taylor back in action can ease the pain for the perimeter offense, but this is still a weak point for the Aggies. Texas A&M doesn’t protect the ball particularly well either (156th nationally in TO rate), so if they become stubborn and attempt to get in the lane frequently against the Rebel’s rim denial defense, it could be a long day for their offense. The 1 area of concern in this matchup is the rebound battle, as the Aggies are #1 in the country in offensive rebound rate, while the Rebels rank just 158th nationally in defensive rebound rate.

Besides the potential rebound mismatch, the Rebels matchup very well with the Aggies. The Rebel’s perimeter firepower along with their ability to keep A&M out of the lane defensively can lead them to a win and a cover of the small number at 3.5. Back the Rebels to bounce back at home on Wednesday night.

Texas A&M vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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