College Basketball Picks

Sunday afternoon begins with a Big East clash, and we are here with a UConn Huskies vs St. John’s Red Storm prediction. The Huskies were expected to be the class of the Big East, but it has turned out to be Rick Pitino’s squad atop the conference instead. With a comfortable 2-game lead with 4 games to play, the Johnnies are feeling pretty good right now. When these two teams met earlier in the month, St. John’s won at UConn, 68-62. I love that we are only having to cover -4.5 when the game shifts to New York, and I am happy to play that as a Sunday best bet.

Breaking down the first matchup is key here. Seemingly everything went the way UConn wanted it, and the Johnnies won by 6 anyway. UConn is a methodical pace of play team; the game was played in the 60s. UConn defends the 3 well, and St. John’s doesn’t shoot the deep ball well; St. John’s only made 4 triples in that game. UConn outrebounded St. John’s 41-27, far more lopsided than the metrics would expect. The Huskies shot more free throws, made more 3s, and blocked more shots. The only thing that went in St. John’s favor was the turnover battle, which was 18-6, and not surprising given the Red Storm’s ball security. Everything went the way of UConn, and St. John’s won by 6. Now the game shifts to New York where the Johnnies are a perfect 16-0 on the year, and they have won 12 of their last 13 in general. This screams Red Storm all the way. I am even happy to lay the points here. Give me Pitino’s bunch for the win.

UConn vs St. John’s Prediction: St. John’s -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the most intriguing games on the Sunday college basketball slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana where the Hoosiers will host the Purdue Boilermakers in a key Big Ten clash. Having dropped 6 of their last 7 games, the Hoosiers are certainly on the outside of the bubble looking in. Their tournament hopes are not totally dead yet, but it’s going to require a massive run to get them on the right side of the bubble – starting on Sunday when they host their arch-rivals at home. The first game in this great rivalry came down to the wire, but Purdue was ultimately able to secure a win at Mackey Arena. Now, with the Boilermakers heading into this game on a bit of a cold streak, I suspect that most will be looking to back Indiana in a must-win game at home. However, I’m more inclined to back the visitors in this contest. 

Fresh off a pair of demoralizing losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State, this Purdue team appears to be pretty vulnerable at the moment. However, Matt Painter’s side does have some clear advantages in this matchup, most notably on offense. Indiana’s defense is outside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency since the start of the calendar year, and Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn should have a big day on Sunday. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to stretch the floor should draw the likes of Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau out of the paint, which should set up easy looks for Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and the rest of the Boilermakers offense. On the other side, Indiana’s offense has a major turnover problem and the Hoosiers are also outside the top 250 in 3-point percentage since the start of conference play. I don’t foresee Indiana having the same level of success as Wisconsin and Michigan State, and the step-down in competition should also do wonders for this Purdue team. Even in a heated rivalry matchup, I’ll lay the points with the road team.

Purdue vs Indiana prediction: Purdue -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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The Owls of FAU hit the road for the FedEx Forum to tangle with the Tigers of Memphis. The latter remains in the Top 20 of both major polls despite a loss to Wichita State last time out. Oddly enough, FAU’s last loss also came against Wichita State in its most recent game. FAU enters with three straight non-covers, and it is just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 games, and 4-10 ATS across the previous 14 outings. These teams met in Boca Raton on Jan. 2, and Memphis won 90-62 in a laugher as a 3.5-point favorite. The first-place Tigers can really strength their grips on first place in the AAC with a win.

The Tigers suffered an 84-79 OT loss at Wichita State last time out, not even coming close to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in the past five games, too, so both teams have been extremely risky, because they’re each terrible against the number lately. However, Memphis has won eight of the past nine games, but it is just 3-9 ATS across the previous 12 outings. Based on the blowout win on the road by Memphis against FAU nearly six weeks ago, you have to back the home side here, and hope it can get the job done by at least double digits.

Memphis -8.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

Xavier is looking to climb higher in the Big East standings on Sunday with only four games left in the season as they get ready to take on a weak Seton Hall.  Xavier has won 4 of their last 5 games, and in that span, they’re averaging 78.8 points while giving up 72.4 points per game. As for Seton Hall, they’re hoping to pull off an upset against a solid Xavier team after they pulled off an overtime upset against UConn on February 15th.  Despite Seton Hall riding high after that victory, and rightfully so as that’s their biggest win all year,  they got crushed by Marquette in their next game by a final score of 80-56.  Xavier is a solid favorite in Sunday’s matchup and here’s why I think they’ll be able to cover that spread with ease.

The last time these two teams faced, Xavier crushed Seton Hall 94-72, but that game was on their home turf.  Xavier is 3-7 on the road this season, but despite their struggles on the road, Seton Hall isn’t playing much better at home as they are 5-8. Seton Hall is averaging 62.4 points per game while giving up 69.8 points per game.  Seton Hall offense has struggled all season, and it looks like they may be without Chaunce Jenkins on Sunday at the time I’m writing this, which would be a huge blow to this offense as Jenkins is averaging 11.4 points per game.  Xavier is looking to play in March, and they won’t let this Seton Hall team stand in their way.  Xavier has been playing well as of late, and they need to prove to the NCAA Tournament Committee they are worthy enough to make it to the big dance.  Look for Xavier to control this game early on and cruise to victory, making them my best bet of the day. 

Xavier vs Seton Hall prediction: Xavier -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the best situational spots of the weekend comes in the Big Ten, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are hitting the west coast for a date in Southern California with the UCLA Bruins on Sunday. While the metrics would tell you that Ohio State is a top 40 team this season, that hasn’t stopped the Buckeyes from feeling like a roller coaster of a team throughout conference play. That hasn’t changed in recent games, as Ohio State lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in which it played up to the level of competition, only to follow that up with a disastrous home loss to Northwestern as a double-digit favorite. Now, the Buckeyes have to travel across the country and play a game less than 72 hours removed from that defeat, against a UCLA team that is coming off a disastrous loss to Minnesota at home on Tuesday. It’s safe to say that practice probably hasn’t been very fun this week for Mick Cronin’s team, and we can expect a big response from what should be a motivated Bruins side in this one.

It goes without saying that Big Ten teams traveling to the west coast this season have experienced issues in the first game of these often two-game road trips. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday, as Ohio State has been a team that’s struggled mightily away from home this season. The Buckeyes have also experienced major issues with turning the ball over in conference play, ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate. That spells trouble against a UCLA team that makes its money on the defensive end by speeding up opposing offenses, forcing turnovers and turning those turnovers into points on the other end. On the other side, UCLA is certainly due for some positive regression as well, with the Bruins offense sitting outside the top 250 in 2-point and 3-point percentage over the last couple of weeks, despite generating consistently solid looks. Ohio State is also 315th in free throw rate allowed over the last month (Barttorvik), so we can expect the Bruins to still grind out possessions and get to the line if things break down in the halfcourt. All things considered, let’s lay the points with the home team out west.

Ohio State vs UCLA prediction: UCLA -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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The USC Trojans (14-12) will play their final game of the season outside the Pacific time zone on Sunday night when they meet the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-14) in Piscataway. The Trojans have struggled of late, dropping 2 games in a row and 4 of their last 5. Meanwhile, the Knights wrapped up their west coast trip with an 89-85 overtime win at Washington, which snapped a 3-game losing streak. Sunday’s matchup will be the first time these programs meet on the hardwood in close to 30 years. 

I like points in this matchup. Rutgers and USC have been horrible on the defensive end of the floor recently, both sitting in the 6th percentile or worse in defensive rating over their last 5 games according to CBB Analytics. In fact, USC and Rutgers are 11th and 14th, respectively, in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, so I don’t see a path to consistent defensive success for either team. Moreover, pace of play should be fine with both teams ranking in the top 120 in adjusted tempo per KenPom. For what it’s worth, Overs are 10-3 when USC is an underdog. 

USC vs Rutgers prediction: Over 152.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 154.

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