College Basketball Picks

The stage is set for the Final Four in San Antonio, and while this has been a chalky NCAA Tournament, we are set up for a pair of incredible games on Saturday. You could actually argue this is a historically good year, as all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time since 2008, which was the year Kansas edged past Derrick Rose, John Calipari and the Memphis Tigers thanks to a game-tying shot by Mario Chalmers that forced overtime – where the Jayhawks eventually prevailed. Moreover, all of the #1 seeds in this tournament are among the 10 highest-rated teams in KenPom’s database, which goes back nearly 30 years. 

The Final Four kicks off with an SEC showdown, which is historic in its own right. This is the 5th time that 2 SEC teams have made the Final Four, but it’s the first time the 2 SEC teams will actually play each other. The top overall seed in Auburn steam-rolled its way here with double-digit wins over Creighton and Michigan, as well as a win and cover over Michigan State in the Elite 8. However, Johni Broome seemingly picked up 2 injuries simultaneously, one to his knee and one to his elbow. He intends to play in this game, but I question how effective he will be. 

On the other side, you could say Florida is lucky to be here. The Gators needed late-game heroics against UConn and Texas Tech, but they took care of business against a talented, albeit distracted Maryland team in the Sweet 16. I would argue Florida hasn’t played to its ceiling yet in the NCAA Tournament, which could be a scary proposition for Auburn, especially because the Gators beat the Tigers at the Jungle despite not having Alijah Martin in that game. 

It’s hard to know exactly how effective Broome will be, but I don’t expect him to be anywhere near 100%. Given the depth of Florida’s frontcourt, the Gators will likely make it difficult for an ailing Broome to have any type of consistency as a scorer, and I question his ability to rebound in traffic with any sort of force due to his hyperextended elbow. Broome being less than 100% will put a lot of pressure on Auburn’s backcourt to keep up with the flamethrower that is Walter Clayton Jr., who becomes the most influential player in this game given Broome’s injury. We’ve seen Clayton lead this Florida team to victory multiple times in this tournament alone, but he’s done it throughout the season – including in Florida’s win over Auburn earlier this year when he scored 19 points on 4/8 from 3, in addition to 9 assists. 

While Broome is on the floor, look for Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlongten to take turns opposing him in the paint. That trio of post players also has the strength to oppose Dylan Cardwell, who I expect to see increased minutes on Saturday. Thomas Haugh, who has risen to stardom in this tournament, offers versatility as a perimeter and post player that can defend other versatile players like Chaney Johnson and Chad Baker-Mazara. Meanwhile, Will Richard is a rangy perimeter defender that can contest the shots of CBM, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones (when he plays off the ball). 

All things considered, I believe Florida matches up well with this Auburn team, especially because of Todd Golden. Golden previously worked under Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl, and I feel Golden will use that to his advantage schematically like he did earlier this season. I also expect Alijah Martin’s leadership and poise to be a key factor in this game alongside Clayton’s shot-making, being that Martin has Final Four experience already. Give me the Gators to win and advance to the title game on Monday.

Auburn vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators ML (-146) at the time of publishing. Playable to -160.

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Florida loves to get out and run in transition. The Gators are top 60 nationally in adjusted tempo, including top 45 in average possession length (KenPom). Moreover, they are elite in their ability to gobble up offensive rebounds – which Auburn struggles to limit at times – and they shoot and make 3s at a top 75 rate. All of these traits are conducive for an Over. On the other side, Auburn doesn’t run with nearly as much pace as Florida. The Tigers usually want to give Johni Broome a touch on a vast majority of possessions, which tends to slow games down. However, given the expectation that he is less than 100% for this game, Auburn’s offense is likely to be carried more by its backcourt against the Gators – which I feel helps the case for an Over. The Tigers have very capable guards that can score from anywhere on the floor, as 4 of Auburn’s rotational players make at least 37% of their 3s on at least 148 attempts. 

Florida has a solid perimeter defense. In fact, both of these teams are currently top 10 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. However, the offenses are even better, both boasting top 3 marks nationally. For what it’s worth, the first meeting between these teams played to 74 possessions, and there were 171 total points scored despite Auburn shooting less than 50% from inside the arc and just 31.8% beyond it. Look for the Tigers to shoot more than 22 perimeter shots in this game, leading to either 3 points when they go in or transition opportunities for Florida when they miss. Given the efficiency with which these offenses play, combined with the expected pace of this game, the Over is the only way I could look for this historic Final Four matchup. 

Auburn vs Florida prediction: Over 159.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 161.5.

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After a long and grueling college basketball season, all roads have finally led to the Final Four in San Antonio, Texas. Not only have all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, but we’ll get to see the top 2 teams per KenPom square off on Saturday, when the Houston Cougars will take on the Duke Blue Devils in the nightcap at the Alamodome. The winner will advance to the National Championship game game on Monday to play the winner of Florida vs. Auburn on the other side of the bracket.  

Both teams took different paths to get here, but the end result is ultimately the same. Duke absolutely rolled through all of its opponents in the East Region – Mt. St Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona and Alabama – thanks in large part to complete performances on both ends of the floor. This is a team that has been able to win in different ways all season long, and the Blue Devils certainly look like the best team in the country at the moment. As for the Cougars, Kelvin Sampson’s rough and rugged team showed that it is well-equipped to handle whatever challenges are thrown its way, as Houston survived back-to-back stern tests against Gonzaga and Purdue — winning both games by a combined 7 points — before demolishing an excellent Tennessee team last Sunday to advance to the Final Four. And while Duke is the team garnering all of the national headlines, I’m of the opinion that Houston is very live in this game, giving the underdog some real value with the points. 

When factoring in data from the entire season, I can’t get anywhere near this number with Duke. In fact, my projection would be closer to a pick ’em line when looking at the totality of the season for both teams. Given that we have to take what we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament into account, the Blue Devils should certainly be favored. With that said, Houston catching more than one possession is a bit much. especially since this profiles as a game that will have fewer possessions than what we’ll see in the other Final Four matchup. After all, the total for this game is currently listed in the mid-130s, which puts a premium on every point we can get with an underdog in this matchup. 

This game presents us with a fascinating clash of styles, and the winner will likely be the team that is able to impose its will on the game stylistically. Duke is elite in all areas, but the Blue Devils’ strengths on defense — defending in transition and at the rim — don’t align with what Houston wants to do offensively, which could be an edge for the Cougars here. Houston loves midrange jumpers, and the Cougar bigs do a stellar job of crashing the offensive glass and kicking the ball out for open threes. When they do get those attempts from deep, the Cougars shoot the ball at a very high percentage (39.7% as a team, good for 2nd in the nation). We just saw the likes of Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan make jumpers against a tremendous Tennessee defense, so that formula is certainly replicable against a Duke team that is more than happy to let a team beat it with jumpers. 

On the other side of the ball, Houston is probably the toughest opponent for a team like Duke to deal with, especially since Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils are going to be seeing this type of aggressive, physical, swarming team defense for the first time all season. The Cougars have the innate ability to shape any contest into the ideal game they want to play, and given that they are playing as well as any team remaining in this tournament, it’s hard to ignore taking the points with the top rated defense in the country. Houston’s veteran know-how, physicality and dominance on the glass should end up being the difference against a Duke team that while excellent, is certainly not invincible against an opponent of this caliber. All things considered, I have to take the points in a game that should come down to the wire. 

Houston vs Duke prediction: Houston +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5

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From a game script perspective, the under correlates nicely with Houston cover the spread, or even winning outright in this contest. The Final Four is being played in Alamodome, which is not a venue that should be conducive to plenty of scoring. As we have seen in previous NCAA Tournament games played in these massive non-basketball dome stadiums, the sight lines aren’t necessarily ideal for shooters and teams generally tend to start off a bit slow in a game of this magnitude. The path to an over only gets more difficult once we factor in both defenses in this game, as we have 2 of the best 5 defenses in the nation according to the likes of BartTorvik, KenPom, EvanMiya and others.

While Duke has shown that it has the capability to play in the open court, both of these teams are more than content to slow the game down to a halfcourt battle, one where executing last in the shot clock becomes paramount. With both defenses flying around and playing at an extremely high level, I wouldn’t expect either offense to have much success scoring early in the shot clock, especially once the second half rolls around and each possession becomes critical. While I do have some concern that Duke’s red-hot 3-point shooting in this tournament will continue on Saturday, Houston’s 3-point defense is so elite that I’m comfortable trusting the Cougars to run Duke off the line and force the Blue Devils into tough midrange shots more often than not. At the end of the day, I’ll trust both defenses and take the under.

Under 137 available at time of publishing. Playable to 136.5